Editor’s Note: The following data has been updated as of Saturday to reflect Sean Koerner’s latest projections.
After overcoming the No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars in a surprising Week 1 victory, the Texans have lost two in a row. Now Houston draws the Bills in Buffalo, where the Texans should find themselves on their way to 1-3.
It's no surprise the Bills sit atop Sean Koerner's straight-up (SU) rankings for Week 4 with a 92% win probability that's 17% higher than the next-best teams.
If you're in an against the spread (ATS) pool, though, don't sweat — Sean has you covered as well. With a 6.3% edge based on his projected spread of Saints -6 vs. the actual spread of Saints -7, the Giants lead his ATS rankings (compare real-time NFL odds here).
Below you'll find his full confidence rankings for SU and ATS picks heading into Week 4. Note that they're based on his power ratings, which help power our NFL PRO Projections. They account for various factors such as injuries and travel.
Ranking NFL Pick'Em Picks
NFL Straight Up Picks
| Conf | Team | Opp | Win Prob% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bills | vs. HOU | 91% |
| 2 | Chiefs | @ PHI | 75% |
| 3 | Bengals | vs. JAX | 74% |
| 4 | Buccaneers | @ NE | 72% |
| 5 | Saints | vs. NYG | 70% |
| 6 | Packers | vs. PIT | 69% |
| 7 | Titans | @ NYJ | 69% |
| 8 | Cowboys | vs. CAR | 65% |
| 9 | Rams | vs. ARI | 65% |
| 10 | Chargers | vs. LV | 62% |
| 11 | Bears | vs. DET | 61% |
| 12 | Dolphins | vs. IND | 58% |
| 13 | Broncos | vs. BAL | 56% |
| 14 | 49ers | vs. SEA | 56% |
| 15 | Football Team | @ ATL | 54% |
| 16 | Vikings | vs. CLE | 53% |
| 17 | Browns | @ MIN | 47% |
| 18 | Falcons | vs. WAS | 46% |
| 19 | Seahawks | @ SF | 44% |
| 20 | Ravens | @ DEN | 44% |
| 21 | Colts | @ MIA | 42% |
| 22 | Lions | @ CHI | 39% |
| 23 | Raiders | @ LAC | 38% |
| 24 | Cardinals | @ LAR | 35% |
| 25 | Panthers | @ DAL | 35% |
| 26 | Jets | vs. TEN | 31% |
| 27 | Steelers | @ GB | 31% |
| 28 | Giants | @ NO | 30% |
| 29 | Patriots | vs. TB | 28% |
| 30 | Jaguars | @ CIN | 26% |
NFL ATS Picks
I'll update the embedded table featuring my ATS confidence ratings throughout the week, but your contest may use different lines, so I've also created this downloadable spreadsheet so you can calculate ratings specific to your pool.
Simply add the odds your contest is using into Column D, then the edge and ratings will automatically recalculate in Column F.
