Ravens vs. Browns Odds & Picks
| Pick |
|---|
| Browns +3.5 |
| Ravens 1H -2.5 |
| Live Bet Ravens |
Browns +3.5
Sean Koerner: According to my Expected Wins metric, the Browns are one of the most underrated teams right now (8.1-2.9 expected record, 6-5 actual record), while the Ravens are one of the most overrated teams (4.9-5.1 expected record, 7-3 actual record). Therefore, I like getting +3.5 on the Browns here.
The Browns also have a massive edge on the injury report, with Kareem Hunt and Jack Conklin returning from the IR, which should give their offense a much-needed boost. Meanwhile, the Ravens are dealing with a plethora of injuries on both sides of the ball.
Ravens 1H -2.5
Michael Arinze: It's felt like a very uneven season for the Baltimore Ravens, but when you look at the standings, they lead the AFC North at 7-3 and currently occupy the second seed in the conference. Now, with a divisional home game in primetime against the Browns, head coach John Harbaugh shouldn't have any problem garnering his players' attention.
That's why I feel a first-half play on the Ravens makes sense in this matchup. For one, Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield has struggled as a visitor in the first half of divisional games as he's just 3-7 against the spread (ATS) and has yet to cover back-to-back games in this spot. And with the Browns coming off a first-half cover against the Bengals in their last divisional outing, this is a great time to fade them again.
In contrast, Baltimore has been stellar with Lamar Jackson as a starter in the first half of divisional games. The Ravens are 10-2-1 ATS for 7.46 units, and they've yet to have back-to-back games in this spot where they failed to cover the spread.
They were unable to cover in the first half of their last divisional game, so that's even more reason to like them on Sunday night.
Lastly, Jackson is 9-1 ATS in the first half when a short favorite of three points or less, and he's a perfect 3-0 ATS as a short favorite when he's facing a divisional foe.
Baltimore is widely available at -2.5 across multiple books, but SugarHouse has the best price available at -113 odds as of writing.
Live Bet Ravens
Stuckey: This line looks about right to me, especially with all of the injury uncertainty for both teams. If I knew Baker Mayfield was 100% healthy and Donovan Peoples-Jones was a full go, I think the look would be the over, especially if some of these questionable Baltimore cornerbacks are inactive.
Both offenses come into this game a bit undervalued in my opinion. The Browns are getting healthier on the offensive line and in the backfield. Plus, they have played a couple of games where weather deflated their output. On the other side, I believe the Ravens offense will continue to improve as the season progresses after adjusting to their own injuries along the offensive line and at running back, while getting healthier at wide receiver.
The Ravens have averaged 33.4 points per game in Lamar Jackson's five career starts against the Browns. They've scored at least 25 in all five contests.
I also believe the Ravens might be worth a look in the live betting market if they get off to another slow start. For whatever reason, it takes their offense a bit to get going. Baltimore has been shut out in the first quarter in five of its past eight games. However, it has generally made up for those lackluster starts late in games, outscoring opponents by 15 (94-79) in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, the Browns have been outscored by 37 points (89-52) in the final frame.
Adjusting for all of the injury uncertainty, I don't see any pre-game value from a spread or total perspective. However, that could change based on injury news we receive closer to kickoff. And as I mentioned above, I'll have my eyes on the Ravens live (or 2H) if they get down early. Keep an eye on the Action Network App to see if I add any plays after kickoff. You can read my entire preview for this matchup here.
