The Baltimore Ravens will face off against the Miami Dolphins on Thursday Night Football in what is an incredibly consequential game for the AFC playoff picture.
The Pittsburgh Steelers, Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengals are all hot on their tails in the AFC North. Despite the Ravens' 6-2 record, they're only a game up on the Steelers and 1.5 games up on the Browns and Bengals.
Quarterback Lamar Jackson has proven doubters wrong all season. He's averaging 276 yards passing and 75 rushing yards per game so far this season, with about two touchdowns and an interception per game.
Jackson is currently fifth in the NFL MVP race at +1000. He only trails Josh Allen, Tom Brady, Kyler Murray and Matthew Stafford in that race. Best believe that if the Ravens finish with the top spot in the AFC, Jackson could be in poll position for his second MVP trophy.
The Ravens offense is seventh in the NFL in DVOA and has carried this team's shaky, shaky defense, which ranks 26th in football.
The Ravens have had to cut it close against some bad teams this season — most notably, last week against the Vikings in an overtime win — but that's more on account of their terrible defense and isn't on Jackson and the rest of the offense.
The Dolphins, meanwhile, are a lowly 2-7. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is listed as questionable after he fractured his finger two weeks ago. He missed last week's game against the Texans, which Miami won 17-9.
If Tagovailoa can't go, Jacoby Brissett will be the starter.
The Ravens are just 7.5-point road favorites for this one despite the teams' drastic difference in records — and Tagovailoa's unknown availability.
As aforementioned, that's the byproduct of the Ravens' seventh-worst defense, according to DVOA.
Bettors are hammering the Ravens' spread. About 87% of the money is on the Ravens to win by at least 7.5 points, according to a PointsBet representative.
And the public is also hammering these three Lamar Jackson props ahead of Thursday Night Football.
Ravens v. Dolphins Most Popular Player Prop Bets
- Lamar Jackson over 63.5 rushing yards (-115)
- Lamar Jackson over 228.5 passing yards (-130)
- Lamar Jackson to score a touchdown at any time (+100)
Data and odds are from PointsBet.
Jackson has fulfilled Thursday's most popular player prop in four of his eight games this season.
That rate implies odds of about +100.
If you take into account his entire career, Jackson has superseded 64 yards rushing in 28 of his 45 starts.
That rate implies odds of roughly -165.
Jackson did tuck it and run far more earlier in his career. That said, this line looks great against a Miami defense that's 25th in defensive DVOA.
This one is potentially worth a sprinkle.
The second most popular prop (Lamar Jackson over 228.5 passing yards, -130) is the one I'd bet on for sure, though.
Jackson has fulfilled this prop in seven of his eight games this season.
The only worry with this one is that the Ravens take such a big lead that they start running the ball with 90+% of their snaps. I don't expect this game to be particularly close, but I also don't expect it to get that out of hand.
Drop a full unit on this passing prop and let Jackson go to work through the air — like he's done all season.
The third prop (Lamar Jackson to score a touchdown at any time, +100) likely has the least value out of the three.
Jackson has scored a touchdown in only one game this season out of eight.
Last season, he scored in just six out of 15 starts.
Combining the two rates implies odds of about +230 for this third prop.
I don't see the value there. Go with Jackson's passing yards prop and call it a day.
Pick: Lamar Jackson to throw for more than 228.5 yards (-130).
