Kicking off the final weekend of regular season football we have an AFC North matchup, Steelers versus Ravens. This game starts the weekend since it has major playoff implications.
The Ravens have clinched their bye week but Pittsburgh is right in the thick of the AFC Wild Card race. They will need a win along with a loss by Buffalo or Jacksonville or a tie in Houston against Indianapolis.
The good news for the Steelers is Baltimore will be resting players since their spot is locked in.
For our parlay, we are going to focus on a unique view for this game that could have a nice payout. We will focus on Pittsburgh taking this one home despite poor play from their quarterback.
Ravens vs Steelers Same Game Parlay (+1000 via DraftKings)
- Steelers ML (-162)
- Mason Rudolph Under 189.5 Passing Yards (-110)
- Jaylen Warren 60+ Receiving Yards (+210)
- Tyler Huntley Under 157.5 Passing Yards (-110)
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Steelers ML
The attention has been on the hot throwing hand of Mason Rudolph for the Steelers offense. However, the run improved rushing attack is what should really be the focus. The Steelers have averaged 144 rushing yards per game in their last nine games. Before that, they averaged just 80 rushing yards per game. A stout rushing attack will cause big problems for the Ravens, who rank 27th in yards allowed per carry.
As for the Ravens offense, they are missing their top-two receivers and will be starting a backup quarterback. Huntley has been around and filled in well as a backup but has struggled against the Steelers when he’s started. Huntley has had quarterback ratings of 79.5, 88.2 and 37.2 against the Steelers.
In Huntley’s last six starts the Ravens are 2-4 and have not scored more than 20 points. Against the Steelers in a must win situation when Baltimore has little to play for, I expect that trend to continue.
Mason Rudolph u189.5 Passing Yards
While we will be expecting the Steelers to win it will be despite their starting quarterback. Against the Bengals, Rudolph had a nice bit of stat-flation thanks to George Pickens and Jaylen Warren being terrific after the catch. Rudolph threw for 290 yards, but 179 of those came after the catch. He did play excellently against the Seahawks, but so does everyone. Seattle ranks 29th in points per drive allowed and 27th in yards per drive allowed.
Rudolph is trying to replicate that success against the Ravens pass defense which ranks first in net yards allowed per pass. He will also be on a short leash since Kenny Pickett is healthy and can take over at the first sign of trouble.
The combination of league’s best pass defense and backup waiting to take over makes a perfect spot to take the under.
Jaylen Warren 60+ Rushing Yards
If the Steelers are going to win they will have to move the ball somehow. We mentioned Baltimore playing poorly against the run. Quick, explosive running backs have been the main problem for the Ravens defense. The last two weeks were blowouts but De’von Achane still had 107 yards on 14 carries and Christian McCaffery had 103 yards on 14 carries. That explosive style is exactly what Warren has and should be put to good use against the Ravens.
Tyler Huntley u157.5 Passing Yards
Analysts always say backups are good until you get tape on them. Well, the Steelers are the last team the Ravens want to face with Huntley then. Huntley has started three games against Pittsburgh in the last two years and none have gone well. He has not thrown for over 141 yards in any of those games. Now, he will be trying to lead a passing attack that is depleted against a tough pass rush that knows him well.
We have Pittsburgh winning the game despite poor play by its quarterback. A big reason why is Huntley will be the quarterback they are facing.
