In the final game of Sunday’s Wild Card Round slate, the Baltimore Ravens are in Cincinnati to take on their AFC North rival Bengals.
Lamar Jackson will miss his sixth straight game while backup Tyler Huntley enters as questionable. Huntley logged a full practice on Friday, but if he can't go, Anthony Brown will take the reins once again.
The Bengals, one of the hottest teams in the NFL, enter on an eight-game win streak. After beginning the season 0-2, the Bengals are 12-2 and Joe Burrow looks primed for another playoff run after coming up just short in the Super Bowl a season ago.
Cincinnati (-8.5) enters as heavy favorites with a game total of 40.5. It took down Baltimore in Week 18, 27-16.
Here’s a same-game parlay with four picks for Sunday Night Football.
Ravens +8.5
It’s all but likely Tyler Huntley gets the start on Sunday. If he does return, this is way too many points in a playoff game, especially considering this’ll be the third time these rivals have met.
The Bengals are a public favorite generating 73% of the bets, but they are only receiving 45% of the money. Sharps have seen value in the Ravens spread just one week after an 11-point loss behind third-stringer Anthony Brown.
Despite his struggles in the passing game — just 5.9 yards per completion — Huntley has been able to keep games within striking distance. He is 3-2 and only one of his losses came by double digits.
His dual-threat ability should provide a boost to the offense. The Bengals are 14th in rush defense DVOA and just gave up a combined 110 yards on the ground to a trio of Ravens running backs — none of which named J.K. Dobbins — last week.
The Ravens should do enough on offense — they scored 16 points behind Brown — to have a shot at the upset. Mostly because of their elite defense that ranks eighth in DVOA.
Look at Week 18’s matchup and you see 27-16. But what the score doesn’t show is that Brown fumbled in his own end zone and turned the ball over twice in the Ravens’ opening three drives. He gave Cincinnati the ball inside enemy territory and set them up for eventual touchdowns.
Huntley won’t make those same mistakes — mostly because of the more run-heavy game script head coach John Harbaugh deploys with him under center. The Bengals are also without right guard Alex Cappa in addition to tackle La’el Collins, leaving their offensive line with plenty of holes.
All this to say the Ravens defense should be able to pressure Joe Burrow and keep the game within striking distance.
There’s just too much going in Baltimore's favor here. It’s a divisional playoff bout where the Ravens defense has an edge — especially when it comes to generating pressure — and will likely have Huntley back at quarterback.
Also some trends that favor backing Baltimore with the points here:
- Since 2003, in NFL Playoff matchups where divisional opponents meet, the road team is 16-8-1 ATS.
- Since 2003, teams on a win streak of eight or more games (Bengals) are 9-22 ATS in the playoffs.
- John Harbaugh is 5-0 SU and ATS as a road dog in the Wild Card Round.
J.K. Dobbins
60+ Rushing Yards (-138)
Since his return from injury, Dobbins has been one of the best running backs in football.
In a run-heavy approach, Dobbins will take the lion’s share of the carries. In the four games since returning, he has rushed 57 times for 397 yards (6.96 yards per carry). He’s incredibly efficient and has broken off 20-plus yard carries on multiple occasions.
In those four games, Dobbins has gone over the 60-yard mark three times. The one under, he fell a half-yard short. It’s also worth noting that against Cincinnati in Week 5, Dobbins rushed eight times for 44 yards.
The Ravens were able to move the ball on the ground against Cincinnati last week, and that was with Kenyan Drake serving as the primary back. As I mentioned earlier, the Bengals are just 14th in rush defense DVOA, a perfect matchup against a Ravens team that ranks second in offensive rush DVOA.
It’s always scary to back a running back’s over, especially in what should be a negative game script, but the Ravens will need to establish the run for any chance at upsetting Cincinnati.
Our Action Lab projections have this number closer to 66, putting plenty of value on Dobbins’ over.
Samaje Perine Under 17.5 Rushing Yards (-130)
Joe Mixon Under 56.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
To round out this parlay, we’re going with a direct correlation by fading the Cincinnati running backs.
If Baltimore were to keep this game close — which I expect them to — then that would lead to more pass attempts and less carries. Given the Bengals’ offensive line injuries, I think the Ravens should be able to stuff Mixon and Perine at the line of scrimmage.
Last week against Baltimore, Mixon had just 11 rushes for 27 yards. That was before Alex Cappa went down with injury, leaving Cincy without two starting offensive lineman. Perine had 18 rushing yards, but he wouldn’t receive six carries if this game stayed close.
Action Network's Chris Raybon has Perine projected for 16 rushing yards — a median would be even lower — and Action Labs has Mixon at 53.
The Ravens rank seventh in defensive rush DVOA, and given the two injuries to Cappa and La’El Collins, I anticipate the Bengals to struggle to move the ball on the ground.
Expect Burrow to rely on his receivers rather than living in the trenches.
The Parlay (+489)
- Baltimore Ravens +8.5
- JK Dobbins 60+ Rushing Yards (-138)
- Samaje Perine U17.5 Rushing Yards (-130)
- Joe Mixon U56.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Pick: 4-Leg Same Game Parlay |
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