Using Chris Raybon's projections that subscribers get using Action Labs, there were two Ravens vs Browns player props that stood out among many edges for the matchup.
Both are betting on the Cleveland passing game to eventually get going with Deshaun Watson under center. Let's dig in.
Deshaun Watson
Over 17.5 Completions
Raybon projects Watson for 19.9 pass completions on Saturday against the Ravens, which creates a clear edge on his 17.5 total.
Watson cleared this number last week against the Bengals, going 26-for-42 through the air. The concern is that he has completed just 59.4% of passes through two games, which is well below the rate of 68.7% from 2018-20.
Watson’s efficiency also doesn’t match his previous form with the Texans. He’s averaging 6.4 yards per reception this season compared to 8.3 from 2018-20. In that span, he averaged 8.6 Air Yards per attempt, but he’s at just 5.3 in '22.
It seems safe to assume that percentage will go up for Watson. He’s playing for the first time in almost two years and has expectedly shown plenty of rust.
Let’s say Watson shows positive regression and completes two out of every three passes he attempts agains the Ravens. He’d need to attempt 26.87 passes to get to this over.
The game isn’t expected to be a shootout, but this total is more reflective of Watson’s struggles to start his Browns career and not of his potential or past production.
Amari Cooper
Over 4.5 Receptions
While we’re betting Watson to complete passes, we’ll bet one of his receivers to catch a bunch of them.
A lack of effort isn’t why Cooper only has six receptions in his two games with Watson.
Cooper has been targeted 16 times over his past two games. That is one more than Donovan Peoples-Jones, although the latter had 12 last week against the Bengals in a trailing game script.
Cooper has been and will likely continue to be the Browns’ No. 1 receiver with Watson under center. The quarterback has targeted Cooper consistently across two games (nine and seven), but the duo clearly needs more time to build chemistry.
Baltimore’s pass defense is stout, but Cooper is eventually going to have a big game. The volume is there, and production is not something I’m too worried about given Cooper’s track record.
This is a plus-money prop across the board. Raybon has Cooper pegged for 4.7 receptions, so we might as well take the odds and bet the over.
Pick: Amari Cooper Over 4.5 Receptions (+116) |
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