Writing these props up on Wednesday made me realize just how banged up the Ravens are right now.
Ravens +1.5 | Buccaneers -1.5
Mark Andrews hasn't practiced fully since before Week 6. Rashod Bateman just came back from injury. J.K. Dobbins is out due to a knee injury. And that's just scratching the surface.
The Buccaneers, meanwhile, have underwhelmed. The Tampa Bay offense has scored more than 21 points just once this season, and that was in a shootout loss to the Chiefs. Eventually, you’d think an offense led by Tom Brady with all this talent will break through.
These picks have been made using Sean Koerner's expert projections at Action Labs. Let's see if we can find some value in the numbers for Thursday Night Football.
Rashod Bateman
Under 47.5 Receiving Yards
It has no doubt been a frustrating season for Rashod Bateman. He started with a combined 6/167/2 in the first two weeks of the season, only to have a combined 76 receiving yards in his next two games. Then, Bateman missed Weeks 5 and 6 and came back for just 42 receiving yards last week.
This matchup against the Buccaneers isn’t great, though, given Tampa Bay’s No. 6-ranked Pass DVOA defense.
In general, the Buccaneers defense has kept the team afloat. Tampa Bay is 1-4 in its last five games, but it has allowed 17.7 points per game this season, and that includes giving up 41 to the Chiefs.
Baltimore’s offense is banged up and searching for continuity. Bateman is the top passing option, but this isn’t a spot for him to break out.
Bateman’s receiving yards prop is 47.5 at BetMGM, but Action Labs has him projected for 38.
Leonard Fournette
Over 48.5 Rushing Yards
The Ravens have the 12th-ranked defense in the NFL, according to DVOA, but it has a clear strength against the pass. Baltimore’s defense is eighth in Pass DVOA but 23rd in Rush DVOA.
Enter Fournette.
It has been a disappointing season for the Buccaneers RB, who’s averaging a mere 3.51 yards per carry through seven games. Since a 127-yard Week 1, that number is down to 2.87 over the last six weeks.
In those six weeks, though, Fournette has gone over this total three times. Two of those games, he received just three and eight carries, although they were against the Chiefs and Panthers, both of which were losses that saw the Bucs focus on passing the ball.
Rachaad White is getting more work, but that’s mostly in the passing game. On a short week against a defense that is clearly inferior against the run, we can expect Fournette to at least be in the mid-teens for carries, which will give him a great chance of hitting this over.
Action Labs has Fournette tabbed for 54 rushing yards against Baltimore, compared to his FanDuel total of 48.5.
FanDuel Quickslip: Fournette Over 48.5 Rushing Yards
