This Ravens vs. Buccaneers matchup was the season’s most anticipated Thursday Night Football game. However, both teams have underachieved thus far, with Baltimore sitting at 4-3 while Tampa is 3-4.
Thus, this game could come to a standstill. The contest is also hard to predict from a side or total perspective.
However, these are still two star-studded rosters. As a result, the player prop market has plenty of value.
My favorite way to bet on NFL player props is using PrizePicks, an app that allows you to parlay together different NFL props and wager real money on them in 30 states. In addition, because PrizePicks is a daily fantasy operator, so it allows you to bet NFL player props in some states where online betting access is unavailable.
That said, here’s my PrizePicks card for Thursday Night Football.
Lamar Jackson
Over/Under 0.5 Interceptions
Tampa Bay’s woes stem from the offensive performance. The offensive line can’t block and the 'Bucs can’t run the ball. Tom Brady has been far less efficient because he has no support system.
But, the Buccaneers can still play defense.
Tampa Bay ranks fifth in Defense DVOA and sixth in EPA per Play allowed. The pass defense has been the driver of this success, as the run defense has been merely average.
Tampa is one of the top pressure units in the NFL, having picked up 22 sacks and 65 pressures this season while ranking top 10 in both pressure rate (24.7%) and blitz rate (31.9%). Meanwhile, the secondary ranks third in PFF’s coverage grades, having forced six interceptions on the season.
The 'Bucs should force Lamar Jackson into a mistake on Thursday night.
They have forced an interception in 10 of 13 their last 13 home games. Meanwhile, Jackson has thrown an interception in six of his previous eight road games.
Jackson is a great quarterback, but the Ravens are asking too much of him this season, resulting in eight Turnover Worthy Plays and six interceptions through seven games.
Jackson is not superhuman and the Buccaneers are one of the best Havoc-generating defenses in the NFL. Moreover, road quarterbacks have thrown an interception in 15-of-22 primetime games this season.
I’d bet it happens one more time.
Pick: Over 0.5 INTs
Chris Godwin
Over/Under 70.5 Receiving Yards
Let’s talk more about Tampa’s offense.
The offensive line is 26th in ESPN’s Pass Block Win Rate (52%) and 28th in Adjusted Line Yards. The offense is averaging just three yards per carry this season behind the unit while Brady doesn’t have time to throw.
Brady gets the ball out quickly and avoids sacks. However, he doesn’t have time to push the ball downfield. His 6.6 yards per attempt is the lowest since he joined Tampa, while his 7.8 aDOT and 8.9 yards per completion are both career lows.
Chris Godwin’s production has dropped significantly. Godwin has compiled 70 receiving yards in just one of his five games this season and is currently on pace for the lowest yards per reception of his career.
Chris Godwin's last two games:
25 targets
138 yards— John Daigle (@notJDaigle) October 24, 2022
Godwin and Brady are trending down against a secondary that is top 10 in Pass Defense DVOA against both No. 1 and No. 2 wideouts. Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey should have no issue shutting down the Brady-Godwin combination. (It should be noted that both Peters and Humphrey are questionable, although both got full practices in on Tuesday and Wednesday.)
Our Action Labs Player Props Tool projects Godwin for 62 receiving yards on Thursday Night, giving us a considerable edge over the line PrizePicks has set.
Pick: Under 70.5 Receiving Yards
