The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in free fall and look to get back on their feet against the Baltimore Ravens at home on Thursday night.
The Bucs have dropped two straight as heavy favorites and despite opening as an underdog, have quickly flipped to favorites against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. Baltimore took down division rival Cleveland last week in another near-fourth quarter choke.
While this had Game of the Year potential before the season began, it enters with a ton of question marks and less excitement. Can Tom Brady bounce back? What’s wrong with the Bucs? Will Baltimore stumble late once again?
All that and more will be answered tonight, but in the interim, here’s a Bucs-centric same-game parlay for Week 8’s first primetime bout.
Buccaneers
ML (-132)
This is the perfect buy low spot on Tampa Bay.
Despite just 22% of the bets, the Buccaneers have jumped from underdogs to 1.5-point favorites.
This is a bounceback spot for Brady who has dropped back-to-back games against the Steelers and Panthers. When he fails to cover by 14+ points in the previous game, he is 22-3 ATS the following week.
Baltimore is banged up by injuries. Star tight end Mark Andrews hasn’t practiced all week, while Rashod Bateman and Gus Edwards carry questionable tags. One of the top pass rushers, Calais Campbell, has already been ruled out.
Quickslip: Buccaneers ML (-132) at FanDuel
Despite their defensive woes, the Buccaneers are top three in pass coverage, per Pro Football Focus. Without Andrews, Baltimore’s receiving game would struggle. Lamar Jackson has slowly struggled with three straight sub-60% completion rate games and just three touchdowns and four interceptions over his last four.
The Ravens defense is nothing to gawk at. They’re average at both rush defense and pass coverage and 25th in tackling. The Bucs have more than capable receivers where Chris Godwin and Mike Evans should succeed.
The Ravens have not looked great this season — they’ve choked away plenty of games in the fourth quarter and almost blew the lead to Cleveland last week — and I think Tampa’s defense will be able to contain Jackson’s mobility and Baltimore’s run game en route to a win on Thursday night.
It may be ugly, but the Tampa defense should find success and I trust Brady to do enough despite their offensive woes to put the Bucs in a position to win.
Chris Godwin
ATD +170
Chris Godwin is finally healthy and his production should only skyrocket as Tampa Bay’s offense begins to click.
Slowly being eased back into action, Godwin has 25 targets over the last two weeks. While he hasn’t found the end zone, he’s been targeted as much as Mike Evans in one less game. Russell Gage is also out due to injury, which should primarily benefit Godwin.
Godwin added a rushing attempt inside the red zone, too. In a game where I expect Tampa Bay to find a groove on the offensive end, I love taking Godwin at +170, compared to the closer to EV Mike Evans or Fournette, who has only trended down in recent weeks.
Cornerbacks Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters also enter with a questionable tag despite logging a full practice on Wednesday. They should play, but both injuries are soft tissue and could lag at times against a healthy Godwin.
In Week 7, Godwin out-snapped every Buccaneers offensive skill-position player, including Mike Evans.
Rachaad White
Over 19.5 Rushing Yards
One of the players trending up in this Tampa Bay offense is Rachaad White, who has slowly carved out a role as backup to Leonard Fournette.
Last week was the lowest snap discrepancy between running backs — Fournette out-snapped White 40 to 29 — as White rushed for a career-high 24 yards on six carries. He finished with six more yards than Fournette on three fewer touches.
The Buccaneers need a change and it could very well come at the running back position. Fournette has just 82 yards on 29 rushes over the last two weeks while White has been effective in limited opportunities.
Action Labs projects White to rush for 24 yards, an 8.7% edge on the current market. Following the narrative of a Bucs win, they should run a bit more.
If White’s snap share continues to rise, this number should go over with ease. Buy your stock on the rookie now before it’s too late.
The Parlay (+522)
- Buccaneers ML (-132)
- Godwin Anytime TD (+170)
- White Over 19.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
