The Los Angeles Chargers and Baltimore Ravens are nearly locked into playoff spots, but this matchup could go a long way toward deciding seeding. The No. 5 seed in the AFC will likely get to face Houston in the first round. The No. 6 seed would be forced to go to Pittsburgh as it currently stands, with a visit to Buffalo being the other possibility. Securing that top Wild Card seed will be huge.
This game has a total above 50 and a spread under a field goal. Those are ideal conditions for a shootout. Here are my Ravens vs. Chargers PrizePicks plays on Monday Night Football.
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NFL PrizePicks: Ravens vs. Chargers
Justin Herbert More Than 260.5 Passing Yards
The Chargers are a pass-first team now. They opened the season 22nd in neutral pass rate through their first four games. Since their Week 5 bye, Los Angeles is up to eighth in neutral pass rate. Herbert averaged just 22.8 attempts through Week 4. He's averaged 31 attempts in his last six games.
Baltimore is allowing the most passing yards per game. They're on an island with Jacksonville as the most vulnerable pass defenses in the league. The Ravens and Jaguars are 20+ passing yards ahead of the next-closest teams.
Herbert has 275+ passing yards in four of his last five games. The lone miss was in a dominant 27-17 win over Tennessee in Week 10, where Herbert threw it just 18 times. It's hard to see that type of game script here.
Ladd McConkey More Than 67.5 Receiving Yards
It makes sense to pair Herbert with one of his pass catchers. McConkey is my preferred choice. His usage and playing time have trending up as the season has progressed. McConkey was slightly behind Joshua Palmer and Quentin Johnston in route rate through the bye week. Since the Week 5 bye, he leads the team in route rate by more than 10%. He's lapping Palmer, Johnston, and the rest of the Chargers receivers in targets and receptions.
Baltimore has allowed 159 more receiving yards than the next-closest team. They're allowing the third-most targets and the third-most receptions to wide receivers.
McConkey has at least six targets in all but two games. That kind of volume should equal plenty of production against this defense.
Mark Andrews Less Than 8 Fantasy Score
Mark Andrews popped up with a nice game in Week 10 against Cincinnati. He recorded season highs in receptions, targets, and receiving yards. The key is that Isaiah Likely missed that game with an injury. With Likely back in the lineup in Week 11, Andrews returned to his tertiary role. He tied Rashod Bateman for third on the team in target share at 9.1%.
For the season, Andrews has a 12.1% target share. He's behind Likely, Bateman, and Zay Flowers. Andrews is running just 58.2% of the routes this year. That number was 67.2% in 2023 and a team-leading 83.3% in 2022.
Los Angeles has ceded the fourth-most targets to tight ends, but they've limited the production. They rank 10th in receptions and 17th in yards per game allowed to the position. More importantly, the Chargers are the only team in the league that hasn't allowed a touchdown to a tight end. If Andrews can't get in the end zone, he's going to have a tough time topping eight fantasy points.
