Chiefs vs. Ravens Picks
| Pick |
|---|
| Ravens +3.5 |
| Chiefs -3.5 |
| Mecole Hardman Over 35.5 Rec Yards |
| Ty'Son Williams Over 46.5 Rush Yards |
Ravens +3.5
Stuckey: This lookahead line sat at around a pick'em in the preseason, moved to Ravens +1 after recent injuries, then to +4 after Week 1 before dropping back down to 3.5 as of writing — but it's not like the Chiefs exceeded expectations in their comeback victory over the Browns.
Despite some matchup disadvantages that I highlighted in my full preview here, I reluctantly bet the Ravens +4 based on line value alone — and I would still bet it at +3.5 (compare real-time NFL odds here). I'm projecting this spread at less than a field goal, and for perspective, the Ravens were favored by 3.5 or 4 points at home against the Chiefs last September — without fans.
That's a massive delta.
I'm trained to not overreact to one week. Losing on the road in primetime to a team that had fans in its new stadium for the first time doesn't mean the season is over for the Ravens. And for what it's worth, Week 2 home underdogs of six or fewer points that are coming off a loss have gone 33-21 against the spread (ATS) to cover at a 62.1% rate since 2003, per Action Labs. That speaks to Week 1 overreactions in the market.
This will also be the first time that the Ravens get to play Patrick Mahomes at home in front of fans — two of the past three meetings came in Kansas City before last season's matchup in Baltimore during the pandemic. It's paramount that the Ravens use that energy in the stadium to get out to an early lead by taking advantage of a weak K.C. run defense. That will give them a chance to control the clock throughout and keep Mahomes on the sidelines.
If the Ravens do jump out to a lead, playing the Chiefs live is probably not a bad strategy, just like anytime Mahomes falls behind.
Chiefs -3.5
Brandon Anderson: Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.
It sure feels like the Baltimore Ravens are the exact sort of team you'd build to beat the Kansas City Chiefs. What would that team look like? You'd certainly want a great defense with a good pass rush and elite corners. You'd hope for great coaching. And you'd want an offense that can run, run and run some more.
You'd want the Ravens — or so you'd think.
That's the bet I've talked myself into every time these teams play, and then Mahomes goes out and makes me feel like an idiot. Wink Martindale just can't stop himself from blitzing. Live by the blitz, die by the blitz and Mahomes murders this blitzing D.
On top of that, those strengths you'd want for this matchup are weaker right now. Ty'Son Williams had a nice Monday night, but is still a far cry from the power-run game J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards were supposed to be, and the absence of Marcus Peters and Jimmy Smith in the secondary comes at the exact wrong time.
If I get Mahomes at under a touchdown, I'm always going to think long and hard before picking against him. The only unfortunate part is that you already missed out on the best line here — I recommended Chiefs -2.5 as an early-week bet before the line moved to -3.5 by mid-week.
Mecole Hardman Over 35.5 Rec Yards
Sean Koerner: This is a buy-low opportunity on Mecole Hardman.
The third-year player has struggled with consistency in his young career, but a lot of it has had to do with his limited playing time. With Sammy Watkins out of the picture, it’s opened the door for Hardman to potentially become Mahomes' No. 3 target within the offense.
Hardman played on 69% of the snaps in Week 1 and, more importantly, ran a route on 83% of Mahomes’ dropbacks. It was the most playing time Hardman has seen since Week 11 of the 2019 season. He managed to haul in only three passes for 19 yards, but he could break loose for a couple big catches tonight.
I’m projecting this closer to 45.5 and would bet the over up to 39.5 yards.
Ty'Son Williams Over 46.5 Rush Yards
Mike Randle: The Ravens are going to need to control the ball, and that starts with a volume-based rushing attack.
In Week 1, Cleveland gashed Kansas City for 153 yards on the ground at a rate of 5.9 yards per carry. Both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt averaged 5.5 yards per carry, which would only translate to Ty'Son Williams needing nine rushes to crest this prop.
Williams reached 65 rushing yards on nine carries in the opening loss to the Raiders, even with the presence of Latavius Murray. In last season's 34-20 loss at Kansas City, the Ravens ran for 158 yards at 7.5 yards per carry. Starting running back Gus Edwards averaged a robust 9.8 yards per carry, before Baltimore had to rely on the passing game after getting down 28-10.
Kansas City ranked second-worst in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA in 2020, ranking only better than a decimated New England defense.
In a game with just a 3.5-point spread at home, I expect the Ravens to keep this game close. Baltimore will look to control clock with quarterback Lamar Jackson continuing to open running lanes for Williams and Murray.
I'm backing the over on this sub-50 yard rushing prop and would do so up to 49.5 yards.
