Since gambling has existed, the dream of turning a tiny amount of money into a lot has been the dream of many players. Lotteries, slot machines, etc., they all offer the same appeal. Since the legalization of online sports betting, we can now add same-game parlays to that list. And we have a Ravens vs. Chiefs parlay for the NFL's regular-season debut.
Sure, they aren't the smartest bet — I'll be the first to tell you that. Fair odds are nearly impossible to calculate, given the tangled web of correlation between each. They are fun though, and just like lottery tickets, it's nice to dream every once in a while.
Of course, you could also make some "sensible" SGPs with alternate legs and try to cash a +200 ticket, but that's not what this article is about. Inspired by my colleague Gilles Gallant's "180 challenge," in which he just tries to hit one anytime touchdown parlay at +1800 odds or better to pay off a whole season. We'll be operating with a similar goal here.
Of course, with primetime games on multiple days every week, that means we'll need a winner on each day of the week, but we'll also have more chances to bring it home.
So, the first three bets below come out to a +427 SGP, as of Wednesday afternoon. Add in the Steele touchdown scorer bet, and it's +5665.
Without further ado, here's what I'm targeting for Thursday Night Football in Week 1 between the Chiefs and the Ravens with this parlay built on FanDuel.
Chiefs vs. Ravens Parlay: 4-Leg SGP
Parlay Leg 1: Under 47.5 (-110)
The foundational piece in my parlay is the under, for a few reasons. Most importantly, including the under significantly boosts the odds when we include any "positive" player picks, arguably more than it should.
I like the bet on its own merits, though. There's the classic "Primetime Under" effect, which means night games tend to be lower-scoring than the typical Sunday afternoon affair. I suspect that impact won't be as strong in Week 1 (since it's not a short week for either team), but it could still be in play.
Beyond that, while both teams are known for their star quarterbacks and potentially explosive offenses, they were driven by their defenses last year. In fact, they ranked first and second in opponent points per game allowed in 2023, but "just" fourth and 14th in points scored.
Neither team lost much on the defensive side of the ball, and the Chiefs big offensive addition is a rookie wide receiver who will likely take some time to have a big impact in the NFL.
Either way, these teams combined to allow just 33.2 points per game last year, and I don't expect that to change much this season
Parlay Leg 2: Travis Kelce Under 58.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
In the playoffs last season, Travis Kelce proved he still had it, with 355 yards and three touchdowns across four games. In the regular season, though, the Chiefs took it easy on their star tight end by his standards. He averaged just 65 yards per game and fell short of this line in six of the 15 games he played.
He's now another year older (he turns 35 in October) and the Chiefs have an improved group of receivers around him. I'm not anticipating a heavy workload for Mr. Swift until later in the season, as there's no need to risk injury or overuse in September.
Kelce also faces a brutal matchup against Ravens safety Kyle Hamilton, who was third amongst safeties in Pro Football Focus coverage grade last season and is the rare defender with the size and speed to cover top tight ends. Just six teams picked up more than 57 tight end yards against Baltimore in the 21 games played last season, and only four individual players.
Sure, one of those was Kelce in the playoffs — but that goes back to the argument that Kelce will be utilized less earlier in the season. I prefer his receiving yards under to his receptions under — he could see a few short area looks for first downs or in the red zone — but both are reasonable picks.
Parlay Leg 3: Isaiah Likely Under 17.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Likely cleared this line just twice in 11 games with Mark Andrews active last season. While I expect a slightly expanded role this year even with Andrews on the field, it will be tough sledding against a Chiefs defense that's very strong against the pass but somewhat soft against the run.
The Ravens should lean fairly heavily on Derrick Henry against the softer run defense given the extra days off before their next game, with considerable rushing production from Justice Hill and Lamar Jackson, as well. With a fairly crowded receivers room in Baltimore, that puts Likely in a best-case scenario of being the Ravens' No. 5 target in the passing game.
This one is the top prop in our NFL Props Tool and aligns nicely with our overall thesis of a low-scoring game
Parlay Leg 4: Carson Steele Anytime TD (+900)
This takes the parlay from "fairly reasonable" to "massive payout" status. Steele is officially listed as the RB3 on Kansas City's depth chart with Clyde Edwards-Helaire injured. However, RB2 Samaje Perine didn't officially sign with the team until Wednesday and will probably be more of an insurance policy than part of the Chiefs game plan on Thursday.
That leaves room for Steele in relief of starter Isaiah Pacheco, with beat writer reports that Steele has been involved in short-yardage and goal-line situations. We're already banking on the Ravens to lock down one of the Chiefs primary red-zone targets in Kelce, so it's reasonable to shift some touchdown expectation elsewhere. Especially considering that the Ravens defense is considerably tougher against the pass than the run, it makes sense to move it to the backs generally — and Steele specifically.
This pick boosts the total parlay odds considerably thanks to the anti-correlation with the under. While it's true that any individual player is less likely to score in games that go under the total, my intuition is that a lower-scoring game likely means more rushing, which is another good sign for Steele.
You could skip this one if you're looking for a "safer" parlay (odds work out to +427), but I'm hunting for the big takedown personally.
Full Ravens vs. Chiefs Parlay Odds: +5665 | $10 bet wins $566.50
As a reminder, with parlay odds being somewhat opaque there's massive variation from book to book. Be sure to shop around to get the best line as this parlay (give or take a yard or two on the receiving props) had odds of just +3190 on DraftKings at the time of writing.
