Welcome back, football! My Thursday Night Football pick is a prop that will be settled by halftime.
Let's get right into it!
From a pace perspective, both the Chiefs and Ravens play faster in the first half.
The Chiefs would be the third-highest luck team total of the week based on last year's numbers, and this year we're looking at a Ravens defense that is likely to decline.
They were dead-last in net defensive spending in the offseason, losing a lot of depth in the likes of Jadeveon Clowney, Patrick Queen, Ronald Darby, Geno Stone and Rock Ya-Sin.
They also lost their defensive coordinator, with Zach Orr replacing Mike Macdonald, who is now the head coach of the Seattle Seahawks.
The Chiefs put up 17 against a tougher Baltimore defense in the first half of last season's AFC Championship game. Over the course of the season, Kansas City scored on 47.6% of its first drives — 10% above league average, and that number against Baltimore would've been even higher if not for a missed 39-yard field goal attempt by Harrison Butker.
The Chiefs also upgraded their passing game during the offseason and while we won't see Hollywood Brown tonight, we will get the debut of first-round pick and deep threat Xavier Worthy.
I like the value on the first half team total over at 12.5 tonight. Be sure to shop around, as Bet Rivers and ESPN BET were at 10.5 as of 2:40 p.m. ET.
