The Ravens are on a roll. Baltimore has won six straight and covered in four consecutive games. Lamar Jackson & Co. haven’t made bettors sweat the spreads either.
In Week 11, John Harbaugh’s team jumped out to a 34-0 lead and cruised to a 41-7 victory, covering the 4-point spread by 30 points. The week prior the Ravens routed the Bengals, 49-13, as 10.5-point favorites.
Baltimore has covered the spread by an average of 9.95 points this season — the largest margin in the NFL. Bettors have noticed.
Oddsmakers opened the Ravens as 1-point favorites on Monday Night Football (8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN). More than 70% of spread tickets are on Baltimore, forcing bookmakers to adjust the line to Ravens -3.5.
Casual bettors expect another easy Ravens cover, but history is not on their side.
Against-the-spread (ATS) records tend to regress to the mean over the course of a season as bookmakers adjust to team performance and public perception. As a result, it’s been profitable to bet against teams that have covered the spread by a big margin.
Since 2003, teams that have an average cover margin of five or more points have gone 485-566-30 (46.1%) ATS. The optimal time to bet against these covering teams is after the first month of the season.
Gamblers following this Pro System have gone 389-314-22 (55%) ATS since 2003. A $100 bettor following this strategy has returned a profit of $5,071.
It is not just history that points to value fading the Ravens. The Action Network's NFL simulations make the Rams 0.7-point favorites.
Odds as of Monday at 9:30 a.m. ET and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).No strings attached. No rollover required.
Los Angeles ranks third in defensive rushing DVOA, which is key to slowing down Lamar Jackson and the Ravens’ potent run game. The Rams should also get a boost offensively with the return of Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks.
Squares are on the Ravens Monday. But steam moves and reverse line movement bet signals have been triggered on the Rams, indicating sharp money is taking the points with Los Angeles.
