We have two Ravens vs. Texans props on the Houston side for Christmas, and they're both unders.
Baltimore and Houston enter this matchup as the Nos. 4 and 5 seeds in the AFC, which means this could be a playoff preview for two weeks from now. Baltimore is one game ahead of the Chargers and Broncos in the wild-card standings, while Houston is one game behind the No. 3-seeded Steelers.
Let's break down the unders we're betting on the Texans this Christmas.
Ravens vs. Texans Player Props: Joe Mixon & John Metchie
Joe Mixon Under 63.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
By Charlie Wright
Joe Mixon has flopped in a pair of tough matchups over the last two weeks. Now, he gets the absolute worst matchup for running backs in the NFL.
Baltimore is allowing the fewest rushing yards per game and the fewest yards per carry to running backs. The Ravens are second in yards per game to the position, just two yards behind Kansas City.
Houston has had trouble opening up running lanes for Mixon. The Texans have averaged the seventh-fewest yards before contact per carry and are 2nd in stuff rate. Fantasy Points Data defines a "stuff" as any run that doesn't result in a first down or touchdown, is less than four yards on 1st down or is less than three yards on any other down. They also have this offensive vs. defensive line matchup as the third-worst this week for the Texans.
Simply put, Houston is in a tough spot against this ferocious Baltimore front.
The Texans are eight in neutral pass rate and second in pass rate when trailing by seven or more. I'm expecting them to be playing from behind given that they're 5.5-point underdogs and dealing with tons of injuries; Tank Dell and Jimmie Ward are now on injured reserve, while starting guard Shaq Mason is doubtful. Also, starting defensive linemen Will Anderson and Folorunso Fatukasi are questionable.
This is a beat-up Texans on a short week facing a talented defense. The run game should struggle.
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John Metchie Under 28.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
By Matt Trebby
I get why on the surface people would think John Metchie might be in for a bigger workload with Tank Dell out for the season. He’s next man up on the depth chart.
Metchie, though, plays the vast majority of his snaps in the slot. He ran 17 routes last week and 10 were in the slot. In Week 13, 16 of his 22 routes came out of the slot.
Metchie’s playing time is unlikely to increase much with Dell out. The likes of Robert Woods and Xavier Hutchinson are likely to get more reps while Metchie’s role remains in the slot.
Both of our experts like the under on Metchie at 30.5 receiving yards, a total he has gone over in three of his 11 games this season. Chris Raybon has Metchie projected for 19.5 receiving yards, while Sean Koerner has him at 23.1.
