Redskins at Bills Odds & Picks
- Odds: Bills -9.5
- Over/Under: 36.5
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: FOX
Odds as of Thursday evening and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
The Bills remain one of the biggest surprises of the season, but are they in for a trap against the struggling Redskins?
Our experts break down the matchup, complete with analysis of the biggest mismatch and a staff pick.
Redskins-Bills Injury Report
Which team is healthier? Bills
The Bills don’t have any major injuries of note, they’re quite healthy overall.
Meanwhile, Adrian Peterson (ankle), Chris Thompson (toe) and S Montae Nicholson (ankle) aren’t practicing for the Redskins. However, Peterson followed the same protocol last week and ended up playing. If he returns to practice on Friday, it’s likely he’ll play on Sunday. — Justin Bailey
Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.
Biggest Mismatch
Bills Pass Defense vs. Redskins Pass Offense
At the time of Jay Gruden’s firing, the Redskins were attempting 35.8 passes per game, 1.2 attempts per game above the league average of 34.6. In three games under Bill Callahan, they’ve hoisted a league-low 19.8 attempts per game.
Even though we know passing is more efficient than rushing, it would make some sense if Washington was actually okay at rushing, but according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA, their rushing offense (28th) has actually been worse than their passing offense (26th).
That said, this week sets up as a good week for Callahan to take the air out of the ball. This is true not only due to rookie Dwayne Haskins possibly making his first start in place of Case Keenum (concussion) at quarterback, but also because Buffalo’s defense is ranked sixth in passing DVOA.
Aside from prime fantasy football buy-low candidate Terry McLaurin, who has accounted for a league-leading 49% of Washington’s air yards, per AirYards.com, the Redskins have little hope of moving the ball through the air against the Bills.
On the ground, there’s hope for Washington, as Buffalo’s defense is ranked just 28th against the run. Forecasted 12mph winds will only compound the probable struggles for Washington’s aerial attack, as wind speeds of 10 mph or more tend to result in decreased passing efficiency and have led to the under hitting 56% of the time since 2003, per our Bet Labs data. Get ready for a heavy dose of running back Adrian Peterson — and an even heavier dose of punter Tress Way. — Chris Raybon
Sean Koerner's Projected Odds
- Projected Spread: Bills -10
- Projected Total: 36
Expert Pick
Raybon: Under 37
Sean McDermott is a hard-nosed, defensive-minded head coach who prioritizes limiting big plays. He also has a mistake-prone quarterback in Josh Allen who must be protected. Those trends have made the Bills one of the best under bets in football.
Case in point: The under is 12-6 in Allen’s career starts.
Add in a Callahan offense attempting fewer than 20 passes per game on the other side as his team’s games have totaled 33, 9 and 28 points in his three games since taking over for Gruden, and you have the recipe for another under despite the minuscule total. And that’s before accounting for the wind factor, which, as I mentioned in the biggest mismatch section has led to a 56% hit rate for the under since 2003.
I bet this at 37, which is still available at some books. [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
