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Rondale Moore Receptions & 49ers ML
| Prop | 6+ Receptions & 49ers ML (+105) |
| Matchup | 49ers vs. Cardinals |
| Day, Time | Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | Caesars Sportsbook |
Week 11 concludes with the San Francisco 49ers (5-4) and the Arizona Cardinals (4-6) battling in an NFC West divisional game held in Mexico City.
Backup Colt McCoy gets the start for Arizona as Kyler Murray is sidelined once again. The spread currently has the 49ers as double-digit favorites (+10), so I thought of a correlated two-leg that fits the narrative.
We start with Rondale Moore.
Labeled the team's "gadget," the second-year wide receiver out of Purdue has run a route on 95% of dropbacks over the last three weeks and has hauled in an average of 8.0 receptions on 10.1 targets. His low 5.26 average depth of target means he gets a lot of high percentage looks.
Moore is running routes 56.6% of the time in the slot, splitting with teammate Zach Ertz. The Cardinals' starting tight end, however, suffered a season-ending injury in Week 10, which means Moore could see more routes in the formation.
The 49ers allow the fifth most fantasy points to slot receivers and have the fourth-best DVOA against the run. I expect McCoy to throw often playing from behind and for him to pepper Moore with targets, similar to the 13 he got a week ago.
I am confidently backing the 49ers here. There is a significant mismatch between the 49ers' defensive line and the Cardinals' offensive line.
McCoy will lack protection against Nick Bosa and co. with LG Will Hernandez, LT D.J. Humphries, and C Rodney Hudson all inactive. According to Spotrac, the 49ers are one of the healthiest teams in the league entering this game (8th).
Ultimately, I trust Jimmy Garoppolo and his weapons to soar quickly, resulting in a trailing game script for the Cardinals. Rondale Moore has been targeted like crazy of late, making me love the pairing of a reception total lower than what is listed and at plus odds!
Note: Over 5.5 receptions is available at FanDuel (-130).
