Rookies 2023: A Midseason Report on NFL’s Next Chapter

The rookie class of 2023 compared to the historical greats. From C.J. Stroud and Dan Marino to Jahmyr Gibbs and Barry Sanders. This article will take you through the top-performing rookies of this year's draft and how they compare to some of the biggest names in the history of the sport. 

As the NFL rookies in the class of 2023 carve their path in the league, some with more success than others, we can't help but draw comparisons to the legendary figures of the past — the GOATs who defined their positions.

In this article, we’ll be dissecting the performances of 2023's standout offensive rookies, measuring them against the icons who once dominated the field. In our analysis, we've examined the key stats that define their performances and compared them to the stats of their predecessors. For context, we've utilized local heroes as benchmarks where possible — Tank Dell compared with the legendary Andre Johnson, Jahmyr Gibbs measured against Barry Sanders. In other instances, we've pitted the rookies against league GOATs, such as Bijan Robinson's comparison to the illustrious LaDainian Tomlinson and C.J. Stroud's stats weighed against the iconic Dan Marino.

We have identified the following offensive rookies as some of the top performers from the 2023 Draft so far this season (and included Bryce Young to see how he stacks up against another former No. 1 pick who struggled in his first season):

C.J. Stroud, Puka Nacua, Sam LaPorta, Bijan Robinson, Zay Flowers, Tank Dell, Jahmyr Gibbs, Bryce Young.

Please take a look below to see how the rookies have been doing and how they compare to the all-time greats.

C.J. Stroud:

CJ Stroud’s name has stayed in the MVP conversation all season thanks to the rookie’s historic season. While no rookie QB has ever won the award, one did come remarkably close: Dan Marino. The future Hall of Famer appeared in 11 games for the Dolphins in his first season, throwing for 200 yards per game while completing 58.4% of his passes. He also tossed 20 touchdowns against just 6 interceptions. In 11 games so far this season, the Texans' prized rookie has averaged nearly 100 yards moreper game, sitting at 297 p/g with a completion percentage of 63.7%, while putting up 19 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. Stroud is on track to finish the season with 5,047 yards and 34 total touchdowns against 8 interceptions. He would be the first rookie to ever eclipse the 5k-yard passing marker. Marino finished 3rd in MVP voting in 1983, going on to win it in his second season. Could Stroud do what Marino couldn’t and win the title in year one?

Puka Nacua

The Rams selected Torry Holt 6th overall in 1999 to step in as the team’s No. 2 receiver behind a recent Pro Bowler, and he did the job perfectly. As a 5th round pick, Puka Nacua came in with lower expectations, but he has filled the same role Holt did just as well. Nacua’s 924 yards on 73 receptions already top both of Holt’s figures from his rookie season. While Holt was a little more explosive – averaging three more yards per reception and hauling in twice as many touchdowns (6) as the newbie has (3) – Nacua has been more reliable, bringing down 65.7% of passes thrown his way, a full 12% better than Holt’s 53.6% success rate. At his current pace, Nacua is on track to set the rookie record for receptions with 113 and would rank third on the list of first-year players for receiving yards at 1,428, nearly double Holt’s output. If Nacua can keep up this kind of performance, maybe the Rams can become The Greatest Show on Turf again.

Sam LaPorta

When talking about the greatest tight ends in history, one man stands above the rest. Tony Gonzalez has the third most receptions in NFL history and is one of only two tight ends with more than 100 career touchdowns. Gonzalez delivered immediate value to the Kansas City Chiefs when they drafted him back in 1997, but so far it looks like the Detroit Lions might have gotten even better value with their young hotshot, Sam LaPorta. In 11 games this season, LaPorta has already brought down more catches (55) than Gonzalez had targets (54) in his rookie year and more than twice as many touchdowns (5 for LaPorta, 2 for Gonzalez). LaPorta has been targeted so often because of his sure hands, hauling in over 71% of passes thrown his way, over 10% better than the GOAT in his first season. LaPorta is on track to finish the year with 833 yards on 85 catches for 8 touchdowns. In the golden age of tight ends, LaPorta has already shown that he is among the best of them.

Bijan Robinson

Coming out of Texas, Bijan Robinson was one of the most hyped running back prospects in recent memory, and so far he has hit the ground running (no pun intended) despite a few slow games. We chose to compare Robinson to another Texas native, LaDanian Tomlinson, and the numbers suggest that Bijan may be a more all-around dominant back than the Hall of Famer. LT finished his All-Rookie season with 1,236 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns, numbers the Falcons rookie is unlikely to hit with just 703 yards and 6 total touchdowns through two-thirds of the season. Robinson may match or even surpass Tomlinson’s receiving numbers though, with Bijan on track to have just as many receiving yards (367) and already having caught three touchdowns to LT’s zero. But the numbers suggest that if the Falcons utilized their young back as much as the Chargers did in 2001, Bijan could top nearly allof the legend's numbers. If he had LT’s carries and targets, Robinson would be on track to record nearly 1,700 rushing yards, 555 receiving yards, and 9 total touchdowns. As it stands, the rookie is set to run for 1,086 yards and 9 touchdowns.

Bryce Young

One of the top storylines in the lead-up to the 2023 NFL Draft was which of two quarterbacks should go first overall. The Carolina Panthers decided on Bryce Young over CJ Stroud and the results so far have been … rough. Over 10 games, Young has thrown 9 touchdowns against 8 interceptions with a completion percentage of 61.7%. His passer rating of 74.9 ranks 31st in the league, just behind Aidan O’Connell and Mac Jones. Fortunately for Young (and Panthers fans), his numbers fare well compared to those of a fellow controversial No. 1 pick’s rookie stats. In 1998 the Colts chose eventual all-time great Peyton Manning with the first overall pick over eventual all-time bust Ryan Leaf. In his first year, the future Hall of Famer completed just 56.7% of his passes and led the league in interceptions, throwing 28 against just 26 touchdowns. His passer rating was nearly 4 points lower than Young’s, at just 71.2. In year two Manning would bounce back and finish second in MVP voting. Maybe Young can follow the same trajectory.

Zay Flowers

First-round pick Zay Flowers has stepped in and carved a spot for himself as part of a dynamic offense with Super Bowl intentions, much like Jerry Rice did with the 49ers back in 1985. While it may be a bit early to say the rookie is the next GOAT at the wide receiver position, the numbers are favorable for the young Raven. In 12 games so far, Flowers has already caught more passes (58) than Rice did his first year (49) and has just one less touchdown. While the young standout is averaging over 7 yards per touch less than Rice did during his All-Rookie season, Flowers is projected to finish the season with remarkably similar overall numbers, thanks to his sticky hands and ability to make plays in the run game. At his current pace, Flowers would end the season with 948 total yards with 4 touchdowns. Rice ended his first campaign with 953 total yards and 4 touchdowns.

Tank Dell

Who knew a 165-pound Tank could do so much damage? The Texans’ third-round pick has been off to a hot start, forming quick chemistry with fellow rookie phenom, quarterback CJ Stroud. Across 10 appearances, Dell has caught 47 passes for over 700 yards and 7 touchdowns. We decided to see how these numbers stacked up against those of the best receiver to ever don the Texans helmet: Andre Johnson. The highlight of the team's second-ever draft class, Johnson was named to the All-Rookie team after bringing in 66 receptions for 976 yards and 4 touchdowns. If Dell had kept producing results at the rate he did before being injured Sunday, he would have blown those numbers out of the water. He was on track to finish the year with 75 catches for over 1,100 yards and 11 scores.

Jahmyr Gibbs

When trying to find a comparison for a great Lions running back, there’s only one place to start: Barry Sanders. The Hall of Famer received All-Rookie, Pro Bowl, and All-Pro honors his first season in the league after racking up 1,470 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns across 15 games. Gibbs is unlikely to reach those numbers, but the stats suggest that may have more to do with the presence of teammate David Montgomery than his own efficiency. While Gibbs is currently on track to run for 943 yards and 8 touchdowns this year, if he were to get the same workload Sanders did his rookie season the final results could be much closer. If given the 280 carries the legend was given, the rookie would be on track to end the season with 1,454 yards and 13 touchdowns, both just barely short of the great’s totals.

Building Legacy

When analyzing the statistics of both the 2023 rookie class and the historical greats, a truth emerges – the rookies of this season exhibit standout talents that demand attention. As we examine their early-season performances against the legends who once graced the same fields, we cannot help but get a sense of promise. The question of whether these rookies can sustain and further their budding legacies over the years remains to be seen. While the future trajectory remains uncertain, one cannot deny that the foundations for remarkable careers have undeniably been laid, leaving fans and analysts eager to closely monitor the evolution of these rookies.

Methodology

In conducting this analysis we have leveraged the data available on pro-football-reference.com. To assess the performance of the current rookie class, we analyzed data spanning the initial 12 game weeks of the season. Building on this foundation, we've predicted the statistics of the rookies for the remainder of the season.