Joe Burrow vs. Josh Allen. To the public, it's a gunslinger battle. Last guy with the ball wins. 45-42.
Well, defenses are less sexy to talk about, but the stats say that both the Bengals and the Bills have defenses in the top quarter of the NFL.
It's Week 17. We have enough data.
When defensive lines can penetrate and get to Allen, he's a completely different quarterback. The Bengals can do that.
The Bills have been overestimated as a team on the road. They are 1-7 to the under on the road, the best under team, or alternatively, the worst over team when away from Buffalo.
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Can the Bills stop Burrow?
I think they can significantly slow down his passing game. Why? Their right tackle, La'el Collins, tore his ACL last week and whoever the Bengals replace him with is going to be a major, major downgrade. Yes, the Bills don't have Von Miller, but he's been gone since Week 13.
And then there's this.
Night games this year are 34-19 to the under so far this season, including eight straight unders. Since Dec. 1, the unders are 14-2 in night games.
Want more?
You are getting the best of the number at 50.5 at BetMGM.
I don't love 50.5 because the number of 51 is the third-highest key number in totals after 41 and 40. So I'm going to encourage you to buy yourself up to under 51.5 (-130) just to protect yourself. I know gambling Twitter tells me it's not worth the juice, but it gives me comfort, so I pay it.
Deal with it, trolls.
