On Thursday, I told you to fade Tom Brady. Why? There's just great value betting against legends that are nearing the end of their career.
There's even better value in fading legends who just don't have a team around them.
Don't play the person. Play the team. And don't get caught up by the jersey.
With that in mind, I'm going to the well again. Confidently.
The Buffalo Bills have gone from a 10.5-point favorite against the Green Bay Packers to an 11.5-point favorite. And you know what, that's not enough.
I'm asking you to take the alt line at BetMGM and hit the button on Bills -12.5 for +100 odds.
Why?
Because in my mind the Bills are going to beat the Packers by more than 10 and I'm willing to glean even more value to get just under the next key number of 13.
Let's talk about this year's Packers.
They are 2-5 against the spread (ATS) — their worst start of the season in 22 years. Not only are they failing to cover, but they are failing to cover by 7.8 points per game, tied for the worst margin in the NFL with the Rams.
Then let's talk about the Bills. They're coming off a bye week and some much-needed rest. More importantly, Josh Allen is 41-27 against the spread since his first start in 2018, the most profitable quarterback over that time period in the NFL.
Everyone wants to talk about the home field advantage at Lambeau. The Packers? Nothing like playing them at home, the sharps say.
Well since 2020, the Buffalo Bills are 14-6-2 at home against the spread, the most profitable team in the league. The Packers are 14-8.
There are not going to be many more games where you have an opportunity to fade Brady and Rodgers. With each game, what is happening becomes more apparent to all. It's over for these guys.
The only miracle would be if the Packers offensive line — which has shuffled constantly throughout this season — gives Rodgers substantially more time in the pocket.
And although the group did fine against the Commanders in their loss last week, the 1960s version of Jerry Kramer ain't walking through that door.
Bet the Bills -12.5 at BetMGM.
Darren is 1-0 on his BetMGM picks so far this season.
