Ah, Thanksgiving and the NFL — what a time honored tradition.
I normally use this space to give you one pick, but since I know you will be on the couch recovering, we might as well hit you with a parlay.
I’ve built my identity on unders simply because most people don’t want to root against offense so there’s inherent value there. But it’s Thanksgiving and we don’t need to make things more tense than they are already by cheering for no points.
So here’s my move at BetMGM. I’m going to be parlaying the over all three games, which should give you enjoyment for the entire day and hopefully some cash to stuff in your pocket — alongside the stuffing in your stomach.
Since I’m a bit uneasy at the current numbers, I’m going to be buying points for all three games.
I’m most concerned about the first game — Bills vs. Lions at 12:30 p.m. ET — because it seems so easy. Buffalo has scored 28.1 points per game this year and Detroit has scored 25. Both teams put up 31 last week.
There’s no weather to deal with since the game is indoors, but I would hate to lose the parlay in Game 1, so I’m buying down from 54.5 to 49 (-225).
I'm also going to bring down the total in Giants vs. Cowboys from 45.5 to 43.5 (-150) and I’m going to bring down the Patriots vs. Vikings game to 35 (-300).
By parlaying them, I get odds of +220.
The Giants and Cowboys represent the biggest value to me. They are both 7-3 to the over, tied for second in the NFL. The Cowboys alone have averaged 39 points per game in the last three games, tops in the NFL by a four-point margin.
New England vs. Minnesota is a bit more precarious as points have come few and far between for these teams recently. That’s why I’m buying down by 7.5 points, which I would only do in a parlay.
