Sunday Afternoon Updates
6:45 p.m. ET: $1.1 million.
That's how much one DraftKings bettor just profited from the Rams' 17-9 victory against the Giants.
The bettor wagered $2 million on the following three-team parlay:
- CFB: Florida to beat South Carolina
- CFB: Tennessee to beat Missouri
- NFL: Rams to beat the Giants
After both of the college football bets easily cashed on Saturday, all that was left to sweat was the Rams.
L.A. entered Sunday as the NFL's biggest favorite (-13.5), but the Rams only needed to win the game outright for this bettor to take home a $1.1 million profit on his $2 million wager.
The Rams sealed their victory by intercepting Giants QB Daniel Jones inside the red zone as the G-Men were driving to tie the game late.
4 p.m. ET: As we reported last night, a bettor at DraftKings has a $2 million parlay riding on the Rams this afternoon. If L.A. beats the Giants straight-up, this bettor would close out a three-team moneyline parlay and profit $1.1 million.
The full parlay:
- CFB: Florida to beat South Carolina (win)
- CFB: Tennessee to beat Missouri (win)
- NFL: Rams to beat the Giants (pending)
3:30 p.m. ET: The $1.4 million bet on Over 42 in the Jaguars-Bengals game cashed early in the fourth quarter with a 50-yard field goal from the Jaguars' Aldrick Rosas.
Because the bettor moved the total 7.5 points, the bet came with juice of -263, meaning it profited just north of $523,000.
12:55 p.m. ET: Another day, another seven-figure NFL bet at DraftKings. In addition to the $2 million parlay we reported last night (see below), the sportsbook also took a $1.4 million bet on Over 42 in the Jaguars-Bengals game.
DraftKings would not say if the same bettor placed both wagers.
The actual total for Jags-Bengals is much higher than 42 — it closed at 49.5 at DraftKings — so this bettor is paying some heavy juice (-263) to move the line down to 42. At those odds, this bet would profit $532,319 the Cincy and Jacksonville combine to score 43 points or more.
Saturday Night Update
9 p.m. ET: One bettor will be keeping a VERY close eye on tomorrow's Giants-Rams game. That's because DraftKings took a $2 million parlay on the following: Florida to beat South Carolina, Tennessee to beat Missouri and the Rams to beat the Giants.
The first two legs of the parlay won without much trouble — Florida beat S.C. by 14 and Tennessee won by 23. The Rams (-13.5) are the NFL's biggest favorites on Sunday, and if L.A. does indeed win, this bettor would profit $1.1 million.
Thursday Update
It's well-known that the public likes to bet the over, and when the over is cashing more often than not, bettors just can't get enough.
That's where we find ourselves entering Week 4 of the NFL season. The over has gone 29-19 (60.4%) during the first three weeks, resulting in the most profitable three-week start for the over in the last 15 years.
And no wonder. The 2020 season has already broken all-time records for combined points per game (51) and the most touchdowns through the first three weeks.
Public Betting Reports for NFL Week 4 Over/Unders
We canvassed the most public books with the highest handle — DraftKings and FanDuel — and out of the 15 games this week, only three have taken more money on the under.
DraftKings reports just one game where the public prefers the under: Tonight's Jets vs. Broncos game. Currently, 53% of the bets on the 41-point game total have been on the under. And by game time, that slim margin may be erased.
FanDuel has two games where the money has predominately come in on the under: Baltimore vs. Washington (79% on the under) and Miami vs. Seattle (63% on the under).
Bookmakers are in an interesting predicament. They want to goad the public to take the over, but they also want the sharps to either stay away or take the under.
"We have a lot of parlays on the over in the Seattle game, but the line has gone from 54.5 to 53.5 from sharp bets," said Eric Osterman at the Superbook in Las Vegas.
Bookmakers will eventually get the correction they want, just as they did in 2011-12. That was the last time the over hit big during the first three weeks. Then, from Week 4 through the Super Bowl that year, the over went 105-112-2 (48.4%).
Games with a lot of lopsided money on the over this week include Bears vs. Colts (FanDuel, 84%), and Bills vs. Raiders (FanDuel, 85%).
NFL Week 4 Betting Roundup
TNF: Denver Broncos vs. New York Jets
Thursday night's game features the Pros vs. the Joes. The public is very much still on the Broncos, who are getting most of the tickets, but the Jets are getting most of the money on what is now the biggest line move of the seasons — from as high as Jets +3.5 down to Jets -1.5 as of writing.
Kyler Murray: The Public's New Quarterback Darling
There's not much value on the Chiefs anymore, but the public has found a new darling in place of Patrick Mahomes: Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray.
"Arizona has turned into a big public team," Osterman said. "DeAndre Hopkins hasn't gotten in the endzone yet, but people have faith in the team because of him as well."
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The game between the Buccaneers and Chargers is shaping up to be a big decision. Osterman said there's a ton of money on the Bucs on parlays and on the moneyline, and bettors aren't scared to tease the Bucs down from -7 all the way to -1.
Fade the Atlanta Falcons?
Speaking of decisions … the Atlanta Fallcons (yes, we put in an additional "L" on purpose) let another one get away from them in their Week 3 game against the Chicago Bears. Atlanta is quickly developing quite the reputation. If bettors are feeling good about their Sunday betting cards, then in-game betting could be spicy in Monday night's Falcons vs. Packers matchup.
Titans vs. Steelers: Consequences from Postponement?
How will the handle be affected by losing the Titans vs. Steelers game? Osterman doesn't expect bettors to lower their bankroll. Said Osterman: "We have a lot of Steelers fans in Vegas. They will just spread out what they were going to spend."
