How well a team does at home versus how they do on the road is difficult to discern earlier in the season, when data points are limited and varied. But now, in December, we have the proper evidence to deduce just how important it's been for some teams.
So with that, I present to you the Detroit Lions at home.
No team reacts better — on offense — to being at home than the Lions.
At home, they’ve averaged 30.5 points per game. Away? 18.4 points per game. The 12.1 point variance is the largest points differential between home and away in the NFL.
Of course, no one really pays attention to this because home field advantage usually means actually winning, something the Lions aren’t that good at. They are 2-4 at home.
Now let’s consider the Jaguars. They have the fourth-biggest deviance between letting up points on the home versus the road. They let up, on average, 8.2 points more on the road (24.8 points vs 16.6 points) than they do at home.
In addition, the Lions score 60% of the points they score in the first half and the Jaguars let up about 56% of the points they allow in the first half.
Add the fact that Amon Ra-St. Brown finally has another threat to join him with the NFL debut of the Lions' first round draft pick Jameson Williams.
I think the Lions will put up points for this 1 p.m. ET kickoff and I love getting a team total under 13 and 14. I’m taking the Lions first half team total of o12.5 today (-135) at BetMGM.
