There are a lot of questions tonight in this Cowboys–Bucs game, but is picking this game any harder than calling the spreads in the Dolphins–Bills and Ravens–Bengals games?
Dolphins without Tua? Ravens without Lamar? And both cover?
I don’t think it is.
Tom Brady looks to have Pro Bowl center Ryan Jensen back for the first action of the year today. But he won’t be his old self right away, and offensive line issues have hampered the Bucs and Brady all year. Enter the Cowboys, the NFL leaders in quarterback pressure.
With Brady, I’m throwing out all his historical trends because he didn’t do it alone, and his supporting cast this year is not great. And the Cowboys haven’t won a postseason road game in three decades. Whatever.
I don’t love the overall total because I think it’s possible the Bucs lay an egg here. I don’t think the Cowboys will.
The Cowboys are averaging more than 30 points a game with Dak in the lineup, and they lead the league in QB pressures and takeaways. The Bucs defense has given up 29 TDs, second-most in the league.
I think for this reason, the Cowboys will have a shorter field, which lends value to Dallas scoring Over 23.5 at BetMGM.
Aside from last week against the Commanders, the Cowboys scored at least 24 points in every single game Prescott played in since coming back in Week 7.
You are going to pay for that 23.5 at -130, but to me it’s worth it, especially since I’m not loving the total at 45.5. With key numbers at 43 and 44, I’d be paying more to get it down where I would want it (42.5) than I am on the Cowboys team total.
