The Steelers rank 25th in total offense and average the fifth-fewest passing yards per game (166.8). However, they’re 4-2 and tied atop the AFC North.
So, with Russell Wilson fully healthy, does Pittsburgh stick with Justin Fields, who has led the Steelers to a winning record? Or, switch to Wilson in an attempt to improve the offense?
That’s the question facing head coach Mike Tomlin, and he’s being awfully cagey now that Wilson’s off the injury report.
“Russ proved his health last week, and we’re looking hard at it this week. It’s up for consideration … I'm not going to get into the details of how we distribute the reps and things of that nature. It doesn't benefit us. Both guys were full participants (at practice), and I liked it. I liked their participation."
Most in the media parsing his words believe Wilson will wind up under center come kickoff.
“Justin has been really good, and we’ve been really good at times, but not to be confused with great,” Tomlin explained. “This is a competitive league, man. We’re trying to position ourselves to be that team. We’ve got a player with talent (in Wilson) who hasn’t had an opportunity to play, so we’re going to potentially explore those things.”
Wilson’s certainly the more experienced of the quarterbacks and was dominant for the better part of his career. He was especially profitable during that span, especially in primetime games, as he was 24-7-3 against the spread from 2012-18 — the best mark in the NFL.
However, it’s been a different story since. His 7-16 ATS mark in primetime games is the second-worst among 88 quarterbacks since 2019.
It’s also worth noting that Wilson’s rarely been a home underdog. It’s happened only 13 times, and he’s gone 8-5 SU and 10-3 ATS. He’s also covered in four-straight games as a home ‘dog. The Steelers opened as 1.5-point favorites, but that moved to them being 1.5-point 'dogs following the Jets’ trade for Davante Adams.
Wilson and Fields overlapped as starters for three seasons, and their numbers were eerily similar. According to Director of Research Evan Abrams, Wilson was 11-19 SU and 11-18-1 ATS over that span. He ranked 37th of 75 quarterback in EPA/play, 48th in success rate and had an aDOT of 8.3. Meanwhile, Fields was 12-22 SU and 35-18-1 ATS. He was 35th of 75 quarterback in EPA/play, 45th in success rate and had an aDOT of 7.9.
One will start, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the other will strictly remain on the sideline. That’s important to know for those who are considering betting on player props.
“Certainly, there’s a scenario (where we utilize both quarterbacks),” Tomlin said. “There was a scenario where that could have occurred last week.”
