Russell Wilson Signs with Steelers: More Potential Than Meets the Eye

Russell Wilson is officially going to be a Pittsburgh Steeler.

Weird.

This was the rumor over the past couple weeks, and Adam Schefter made the news official Sunday night. Wilson will sign a team-friendly (read: cheap) deal for Pittsburgh, with Denver picking up the bulk of the tab for Wilson's contract.

The low cost for Wilson, presumably around the veteran minimum, makes this mostly a risk-free move for Pittsburgh. If things don't go well in the black and gold, the Steelers can just cut Wilson and move on with life. Kenny Pickett is still under contract and could very well compete for the starting job, and he'd certainly be a capable Wilson replacement as needed.

The Broncos have been one of the few NFL teams to hold the edge on the Steelers over the years from a rivalry standpoint, winning 20 of 33 head-to-head matchups including five of eight playoff meetings. Maybe this is a chance for Pittsburgh to even the score a bit — especially as the Steelers head to Denver late in the season for what will certainly be a contentious return for Wilson.

So how will the move work out for the Steelers?

It's no secret Wilson is not the player he once was. He turns 36 at the end of November, and he's seen a clear drop in his level of play over the past three seasons. After starting his career 98-45-1 without missing a single game through nine seasons, Wilson has gone 17-27 with missed time in all three seasons since.

Wins and losses aren't quarterback stats, but the underlying metrics paint a similar dropoff.

Wilson finished 18th in EPA per play last season, between Derek Carr and an injured Joe Burrow. He finished 12th in the composite EPA + CPOE metric, buoyed by his typically great Completion Percentage Over Expectation, where he ranked third behind only Brock Purdy and Josh Allen. That was a big step forward from Wilson's first year in Denver, when he finished 26th of 31 QBs in EPA + CPOE.

Wilson's first year in Denver was a disaster all around, with the coaching staff mostly to blame. His second season saw a distinct change in playing style, with a beefed-up offensive line and a focus on the run game, accompanied by short passes that saw Wilson rank 28th of 30 QBs in air yards per target.

Sean Payton didn't trust Wilson to chuck it downfield or create, like he used to. Wilson was deployed as a game manager, and that's effectively what he was. He ranked 20th in Success Rate, again right around Carr.

Wilson finished top seven by PFF grade in seven of his first nine seasons before dropping to 19th, 29th and 18th the last three years. That No. 18 ranking this season was again one spot ahead of Carr.

Effectively, that's what Wilson has become the last couple seasons: Derek Carr.

And that certainly sounds uninspiring, especially after the miserable season Carr just had.

There's a really important distinction, though. Carr signed for four years and $150 million last spring, with $60 million of that fully guaranteed. The Steelers are on the hook for barely a million bucks for Wilson. He's effectively free.

And therein lies the upside for Pittsburgh.

Russell Wilson is no longer a sexy signing in 2024. The upside is likely gone. There's no superstar still hiding in there. Probably not even a Pro Bowler.

Wilson's biggest problem at this point is he holds the ball far too long, trying to make something happen and subsequently eating sacks like a madman. His 8.5% career sack rate has always been poor and has ticked up the last few years, and the fumbles have become an increasing problem too.

No, just Russell Wilson is not a great signing in 2024. But free Russell Wilson might be.

Baker Mayfield signed for three years and up to $115 million on Sunday, an AAV of over $38 million.

Would you rather have Baker Mayfield or Russell Wilson? That question is probably a fair debate in 2024.

But would you rather have Baker for $38 million or Russ for $1 million? That one's a slam dunk.

The salary cap is real, and that extra $37 million represents three or four very good starters, guys that can round out an already good roster. That's not just Baker or Russ. It's Baker or Russ and a good corner, an offensive lineman, a top safety and another receiver.

Kirk Cousins may or may not re-sign in Minnesota, but he's expected to see north of $40 million per year. Justin Jefferson may sign an extension north of $30 million annually. Would you rather spend your $40 million on Kirk Cousins, or on Jefferson and Wilson? Should be a pretty easy answer.

Signing the 20th-best quarterback doesn't move the needle much in a league where no position is more important, but what if you can get league-average quarterback play from effectively a free player? If you don't think that can be valuable, you apparently didn't watch what the 49ers just did with Purdy.

San Francisco nearly won the Super Bowl with a stacked roster on both sides of the ball and a dirt cheap, competent quarterback in Purdy.

Could Wilson be Purdy for the right team? Pittsburgh brought in Arthur Smith, who got excellent seasons from Ryan Tannehill and Marcus Mariota late in their careers. Smith has done an excellent job using QB mobility to his advantage, emphasizing the run game and taking advantage of play action. He'll have some work to do getting Wilson to buy into and fit his style of play, but it could be a dynamic fit.

Last month, I labeled the Steelers the most QB-ready team on my list of five teams a quarterback away from a Super Bowl. On the surface, it doesn't feel like Wilson is that guy.

But what about free Wilson?

The Steelers entered the offseason with the sixth-best roster in football in an NFL world in which all quarterbacks are equal. They went 10-7 and made the playoffs starting Mason Rudolph this season, and they made it two years ago with the corpse of Ben Roethlisberger.

Mike Tomlin has famously never finished below .500, and even this late-career version of Wilson is probably the best QB the Steelers will have had in at least five years.

The Steelers have terrific weapons at RB and WR. The offensive line improved late in the season as the run game found its footing. The defense is loaded and always great. And you know the coaching is great. Now Pittsburgh can pay all those guys, add even more talent, bring two competent game manager QBs with upside in for cheap and make a run.

Competent starting QB play is valuable in the NFL — incredibly valuable, actually. It's why Cousins and Carr are getting these massive free agency deals. Russell Wilson is in a similar vein now — but free.

The Steelers signing Russell Wilson in 2024 may not be sexy. But it's savvy, with more upside than you think in Smith's offense. Don't be surprised if it has Tomlin and the Steelers right back in the playoffs again next season, just like always.