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There are two NFL player prop bets offering value in Saints-Cowboys, which kicks off at 8:20 p.m. ET on Fox/NFL Network.
Our public betting data will be used in this data-driven analysis of props, as will our player prop tool at FantasyLabs, which takes each prop listed across five of the most popular sportsbooks and leverages them against our player projections from Sean Koerner — the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in each of the past three seasons.
*All odds as of 1 p.m. ET on Thursday
Cowboys WR Cole Beasley
The Pick: Under 43.5 receiving yards (-114)
Before the Amari Cooper trade, Beasley led the Cowboys with 21% of their market share of targets. However, since acquiring Cooper, Beasley's target share has dropped to 14% while Cooper leads the team with 25.5%.
Over the four-game span with Cooper on the roster, Beasley's lines are 3-16, 4-37, 5-51 and 1-5, clearing 43 receiving yards just once.
It's not ideal that P.J. Williams — Pro Football Focus' No. 109th-ranked cornerback — is covering Beasley, but in our prop tool, Koerner has Beasley projected for 35 receiving yards.
Let's hope the drop in target share plays out in favor of the under.
Cowboys WR Michael Gallup
The Pick: Over 30.5 receiving yards (-115)
Gallup has seen modest target share since Week 9, soaking up 16% of the market share (third-most) over the past four weeks.
While this prop certainly has some risk given that he's been held to fewer than 20 receiving yards in each of his past two games, Gallup might only need one big play for this prop to hit, which he's certainly capable of doing.
Gallup also has an average depth of target of 14.27 yards this season, and the Saints' secondary has allowed the fifth-highest completion rate (53.41%), third-highest yards per attempt (15.51) and league-high 124.09 receiving yards per game on targets 15-plus yards downfield, per Sports Info Solutions.
