Last week was not at all what we expected. The Bears came out red-hot, lit up the scoreboard and smashed our game script.
After digging deeper into what happened, it looked like the Packers just had three breakdowns in the first half. However, the second half was much more how we thought the game would unfold. Unfortunately, our parlay was already burned up at that point. Let’s see if we can redeem ourselves this week.
As a reminder, our process is built on creating a script for Sunday Night Football. Then, follow that script to build a parlay that optimizes our expected return. This will allow us to use PointsBet's $20 free bet for SNF in the most efficient manner.
Saints vs. Buccaneers Odds
This is an interesting matchup. Since Tom Brady moved to Tampa Bay, the Saints are 3-0 against the Buccaneers in the regular season. Last season, both of the games were won handily by the Saints. This season, the Saints managed to find a way to overcome the loss of Jameis Winston and get the go-ahead field goal with under two minutes remaining. This is likely another case of Sean Payton coaching up and down to his competition.
As is the case for most teams against Tampa Bay, finding a way to match up with all their weapons is priority one. The good news is the Saints can allocate more resources to their pass defense than most teams. New Orleans ranks first against the run, allowing just 3.7 yards per carry. This will be more valuable than usual against the Buccaneers because Leonard Fournette has been the center of their offense recently. Fournette has averaged 118 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns in the past three games.
Forcing the ball into Brady’s hands is typically fatal for a defense. However, as long as the Saints are not forced to commit too many players to the run they should still have better odds of succeeding than most.
The major question for this game will be the Saints' offense. We have seen Taysom Hill as the starter for two games and the results have been underwhelming. Yes, the Saints comfortably won against New York, but that was a one-score game heading into the fourth. The biggest worry is if Hill is forced to throw his team back into the game. We saw how quickly that can unravel for New Orleans against Dallas as he threw four interceptions.
The script for this game is an unusual one. Rather than a timeline of our scoring expectations, it is more a guide for how we expect the teams to match up. Given these teams' recent history against one another, though, that seems like the safer approach. Let’s take that guide and build our parlay now.
The Parlay (+850)
- New Orleans Saints +13.5 (-145)
- Taysom Hill Over 45.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
- Alvin Kamara Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
- Mike Evans Under 60.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
PointsBet Same-Game Parlay: Saints vs. Buccaneers
Prop 1: New Orleans Saints +13.5 (-145)
This pick comes down to blind faith in the Saints' play-calling and defense. The only game against a winning team where the Saints struggled was the Bills on Thanksgiving. Other than that, they have found a way to win or play competitively each time. The worst they have done was the 10-point loss to the Cowboys. However, sticking within 10 points despite four interceptions is impressive.
As for trusting the Saints against Brady, this is not complete confidence. We are still giving 13.5 points for a reason. Rather, this is a belief in New Orleans' defense to not let the Bucs run away with game as they look to churn out the clock.
For believing in the Saints' offense to score enough to stay in this range, that is what our next two props are for.
Prop 2: Taysom Hill Rushing Yards Over 45.5 (-115)
This one seemed pretty easy to pick for me. Hill has crushed this total in both of his starts, putting up 101 and then 73. More importantly, with the high spread we took, the Saints will likely be forced to throw more. Add in that the Bucs will be in soft coverage to protect their lead and Hill should have plenty of running lanes. We saw him gash the Cowboys for 101 yards when they were trying to throw back into that game. I expect more of the same in this matchup.
Prop 3: Alvin Kamara Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Kamara is finally back and healthy after a long break. We saw the Saints' confidence in their star back last week as he received 27 carries. Under the same logic as Hill’s rushing yards, if the Saints are facing soft coverage and trying to throw back into the game, that will open up Kamara underneath. With a limited quarterback, turning to the check-down will be one of the safer options, too. In addition, we have seen how limited this offense has become at the skill positions. New Orleans will likely have big plans for the Swiss army knife to get him going early.
Prop 4: Mike Evans Under 60.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
The problem for Evans in this matchup is simply Marshon Lattimore, who has the ability to completely shutdown the Evans. In their past five matchups, Evans has averaged just 36.6 yards per game. This game has an unusual ayre of Bucs should control it too. The combination of Lattimore’s ability to stop Evans and the Bucs playing with a lead should make this a smash play.
