Not every Thursday Night Football game will be like the last two … right?
After two weeks of watching hilariously subpar offenses on Thursday nights, we have potential for points tonight with Saints vs. Cardinals. Kyler Murray is always capable of the spectacular, while New Orleans has been getting things done in a unique way, highlighted by Taysom Hill.
Using the Action Labs Player Props tool, here are two Saints vs. Cardinals picks to tail.
Taysom Hill
Over 31.5 Rushing Yards (FanDuel)
In five games this season, Hill has gone over this total three times. In two of those games, he ran for 81 and 112 yards. Last week against Cincinnati, it was 39.
The Saints are going to have Andy Dalton under center again tonight against the Cardinals, and they’re also going to be without Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry at WR. That means they’re looking for ways to make plays on offense.
Enter Hill.
The Saints TE/QB/RB/playmaker is averaging 9.1 yards per carry with Dalton under center. Although New Orleans is 1-2 in those three games, the offense is scoring a whopping 30 points per game, powered by Hill and Alvin Kamara.
When New Orleans has its full complement of playmakers back, the offense may look different and we might not be betting Hill’s rushing totals like this. For now, we’ll take advantage of an Action Labs projection of 37 rushing yards for an offense that is thriving.
Zach Ertz
Under 45.5 Receiving Yards
This one isn’t a straight fade of Ertz. It’s more a backing of what the Saints defense has done to opposing tight ends this season.
According to Football Outsiders, New Orleans ranks first in DVOA against tight ends this season. Here’s opposing teams’ TE1 against the Saints this season:
- Week 1: Kyle Pitts 2/19/0
- Week 2: Cameron Brate: 1/9/0
- Week 3: Ian Thomas 2/13/0
- Week 4: Irv Smith Jr. 3/23/0
- Week 5: Noah Fant: 3/49/0
- Week 6: Hayden Hurst: 3/21/0
It should be noted that Fant set a season high for receiving yards in that game, which saw 71 points scored between the Seahawks and Saints.
Ertz turns 32 in November, but he’s still producing at a high level. He has had at least 45 receiving yards in each of his last five games and saw double-digit targets in four of those. This matchup against the Saints, though, simply isn’t a good one for opposing tight ends.
While Marquise “Hollywood” Brown is out for Arizona, DeAndre Hopkins is set to make his season debut and Rondale Moore has 18 targets in the Cardinals’ last two games.
