The Arizona Cardinals are in a free fall and Kliff Kingsbury is on the hot seat. Meanwhile, the Saints are 2-4 in the immediate aftermath of Sean Payton’s retirement.
But these are two star-studded rosters with loads of talent – from a football and player prop perspective.
My favorite way to bet on NFL player props is using PrizePicks, an app that allows you to parlay together different NFL props and wager real money on them in 30 states. In addition, because PrizePicks is a daily fantasy operator, it allows you to bet NFL player props in some states where online betting access is unavailable.
That said, here’s my PrizePicks card for Thursday Night Football.
Andy Dalton
Under 216.5 Passing Yards
This pick is dependent on Andy Dalton starting Thursday Night Football. He likely gets the start, but there is some doubt. New Orleans head coach Dennis Allen did not announce who would begin the game under center, as Jameis Winston was without an injury designation going into the game.
The under on his passing yards is worth betting on if Dalton does start.
I don’t believe in the Arizona Cardinals. I want to fade every aspect of this team, from Kingsbury to Kyler Murray to the defense to the weightlifting coach. That said, they have an exciting trend worth mentioning.
Arizona has held five straight opposing quarterbacks under their passing yards total. They’ve allowed only two of the last 22 quarterbacks they’ve faced to exceed their listed passing yards total. Those two are Jimmy Garoppolo in Week 9 of last year (346 pass yards with a line of 240.5) and Patrick Mahomes in Week 1 of this year (360 pass yards with a line of 297.5).
Note: If Winston does start, I’d call it a “heavy lean” toward his under, as well.
Saints +2.5 | Cardinals -2.5
I don’t understand how this is possible, but it is. My only theory is that it’s because of defensive coordinator Vance Joseph’s blitz-heavy attack combined with Buddha Baker’s safety coverage. This combination forces quarterbacks to get the ball out quickly without targeting defenders downfield, thus resulting in dinking-and-dunking game plans.
I think this Cardinals-passing yards trend is worth backing again, considering this situation. The Saints run at a bottom-10 rate in the league and less with Dalton under center. In addition, New Orleans currently has the third-lowest Pass Rate Over Expectation mark in the NFL (-10.6%).
Dalton put up a considerable passing number in Week 1, picking up 236 yards in his first start against Minnesota. But he failed to reach 190 yards in each of his last two starts, and his yardage total is trending down.
Plus, you never know when the Saints are just going to throw Taysom Hill in for a random quarterback run package.
I’m ready to fade Dalton again, especially when the trends and our Action Labs projections agree with me.
Kyler Murray
Over 34.5 Pass Attempts
I think Kingsbury lets Kyler cook on Thursday Night. Or, at least try to cook.
Marshawn Lattimore is out, while DeAndre Hopkins is back following his six-game suspension. If there is ever a time to attack a defense through the air, this is it.
Interestingly, the Saints' secondary has been surprisingly weak this season. They grade out at 19th in PFF’s Coverage grades and 21st in Football Outsiders' Pass Defense DVOA. Even worse, the Saints are 26th in Dropback EPA per Play allowed.
New Orleans has played remarkably better against the run this season, meaning the best way to attack them is via Murray.
However, the Cardinals have already been letting Kyler air it out. Murray has cashed this number in four of his last five starts, averaging almost 44 attempts per game during the stretch.
Meanwhile, the Saints have allowed two of the last three opposing quarterbacks to go over their pass attempts line. They allowed Joe Burrow to huck it 38 times and Kirk Cousins 37 times.
Our Action Labs Player Props Tool projects Murray for 36.7 pass attempts on Thursday Night. Considering everything, I’ll throw this line in my PrizePicks flex play.
