Since gambling has existed, the dream of turning a tiny amount of money into a lot has been the dream of many players. Lotteries, slot machines, etc., they all offer the same appeal. Since the legalization of online sports betting, we can now add same-game parlays to that list. So, we have a Saints vs. Chiefs parlay on Monday night.
NFL parlays aren't the smartest bets — I'll be the first to tell you that fair odds are nearly impossible to calculate, given the tangled web of correlation between each. They are fun, though — and just like lottery tickets, it's nice to dream every once in a while.
Of course, you could also make some "sensible" SGPs with alternate legs and try to cash a +200 ticket, but that's not what this article is about. Inspired by my colleague Gilles Gallant's "180 challenge," in which he tries to hit one anytime touchdown parlay at +1800 odds or better to pay off a whole season, we'll be operating with a similar goal here.
Of course, with primetime games on multiple days every week, we'll need a winner on each day of the week, but we'll also have more chances to bring it home. Without further ado, here's what I'm targeting for my Saints vs. Chiefs Monday Night Football parlay picks on DraftKings.
Saints vs. Chiefs Parlay
- Saints +5.5 (-108)
- Under 43 (-108)
- Kareem Hunt 50+ Rushing Yards (+140)
- Alvin Kamara Anytime TD (-110)
Saints vs. Chiefs Parlay Odds: +2400 (DraftKings) | $10 Bet Wins $240
Saints +5.5 (-108)
I'm still holding out hope this one gets to +6, especially with the Saints side starting to show up at lower juice. Even if it doesn't, I'm more than happy to be on the Saints' side here.
After a hot start, they've had a pair of razor-close losses to the Eagles and Falcons, which caused them to plummet to the bottom of our Luck Rankings due to how those games went.
On the other side, Kansas City is 4-0 with four one-score wins and just lost top receiver Rashee Rice for the foreseeable future. Their offense has been mediocre (by Chiefs standards) even with Rice, and New Orleans ranks second in defensive DVOA on the season.
It might not be enough for the Saints to win outright, but it should keep things close enough to cover this line.
Under 43 (-108)
If my analysis of why I'm on the Saints spread also sounds like an endorsement for the under — that's because it is.
I mostly touched on the reasons I'm bearish on the Chiefs offense above, but I have my doubts on the Saints side as well.
Of their three starting interior offensive linemen, two have been ruled out already, while a third is questionable (but hasn't practiced all week and seems unlikely to play).
On top of that, Alvin Kamara is banged up and has dealt with a heavy workload, while Taysom Hill is out with broken ribs. Given the state of both offenses, this one could be ugly.
Kareem Hunt 50+ Rushing Yards (+140)
The one offensive unit I expect to be effective here is the Chiefs running game. Their offensive line is one of five in the league, averaging over 5.00 adjusted line yards per play. The Saint's defensive line is slightly below average at 18th in adjusted line yards allowed.
This is a nice prop to have since it goes against both of our other picks. We're getting a massive adjustment to the overall parlay odds, with this +140 pick taking the total odds to +1200.
Taking this alt line isn't even that big of a swing based on our NFL Props tool. We have a projection of 49 yards for Hunt. You could certainly opt for his standard line of 42.5, too, but I like the odds we get by bumping it up a bit.
Alvin Kamara Anytime Touchdown (-110)
We could've easily stopped with the +1200 three-leg parlay — and I'll be betting that version as well — but these odds are too good to pass up. By adding Kamara's anytime touchdown odds, the parlay grows all the way to +2400 odds.
While this obviously works against our under, if the Saints are going to cover the spread, they're going to have to score a touchdown at some point. Given their injuries, it's highly likely it comes through Kamara.
I worry about Kamara's production when Taysom Hill is active, given Hill's usage in the red zone. With Hill out, Kamara is the clear goal-line threat. On top of that, he's elusive enough — and gets the ball enough — to break a touchdown from further out as well.
Full Saints vs. Chiefs Parlay Odds: +2400 | $10 Bet Wins $240
