Saints at Jaguars Odds & Picks
- Odds: Jaguars -1
- Over/Under: 43.5
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: CBS
The Saints are undefeated with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback, but can they survive a test from Gardner Minshew and the Jaguars?
Our experts reveal how they think this matchup will be decided, complete with a comparison to Sean Koerner's projected odds and a staff pick against the spread.
Saints-Jaguars Injury Report
Jalen Ramsey (back) has been limited in practice all week and owner Shahid Khan believes that Ramsey will play this week. Minshew (groin) was added to the injury report with a limited practice on Thursday, but there’s nothing to indicate he’ll miss this game.
Alvin Kamara (ankle) was a new addition to the injury report on Thursday, but he still got in a limited practice, so he’ll likely play. — Justin Bailey
Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.
Biggest Mismatch
Alvin Kamara vs. Jaguars Run Defense
The Jaguars rank last among in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA, which means the biggest mismatch in this key Week 6 battle falls on the shoulders of Kamara.
The Jaguars have allowed an average of 122 rushing yards, one touchdown and 5.7 yards per carry over the first five weeks. Kamara’s snap share is north of 76% — the highest of his three-year career, by far. Among running backs he ranks sixth in targets, fifth in receiving yards and fourth in receptions.
New Orleans will likely feature Kamara and backup Latavius Murray, but there is hope for the Jags: In their last home game against a run-heavy Tennessee team, they held the Titans to just 3.5 yards per carry on 26 carries.
With Ramsey returning to practice, the Jacksonville pass defense should be much better than its current No. 18 ranking. There's a good chance this game will be won in the trenches between Kamara and the Jaguars front seven.
Until Drew Brees returns, the Saints will continue to use Bridgewater as a game manager. The team that wins the ground game will likely prevail.— Mike Randle
Sean Koerner's Projected Odds
- Projected Spread: Jaguars -1
- Projected Total: 44
The Saints are 3-0 straight up and against the spread ever since Bridgewater replaced Brees. Bridgewater certainly deserves some credit for keeping the Saints alive while Brees recovers from thumb surgery. However, a lot of it is thanks to the Saints’ coaching tailoring this offense to get the ball in the hands of Kamara and Michael Thomas.
The Jaguars should be able to figure out that simple blueprint this week and could force Bridgewater to make riskier throws. They desperately need Ramsey to return to possibly slow Thomas down. The public is likely treating the Saints as the favorites — they’re attracting 76% of the tickets as of writing (see live public betting data here) — while the sharps are making the Jags the favorites with 60% of the money.
Right now this line is right where I have it pegged. — Sean Koerner
Expert Picks
Randle: Jaguars -1
This was a strange opening line.
The Saints coming off impressive home wins over the previously undefeated Dallas and a Tampa Bay team that trounced the Rams 55-40 at home. The Jags, meanwhile, are 2-3 and still haven’t resolved their friction with Ramsey.
But the Jaguars should be able to generate more pressure on Bridgewater than either of the Saints' past two home opponents. Jacksonville logged nine sacks in its last home game against Tennessee and added three more at Carolina last Sunday. Bridgewater struggles against defenses that pressure him, ranking only 20th at the position with a 35% pressured completion rate.
And I'm officially a believer in Minshew, who has thrown seven touchdown passes and no interceptions over his past four starts. D.J. Chark has shown promise with Minshew at the helm and Dede Westbrook has recovered from his slow start, with 26 targets and 17 receptions over his past three games.
This line feels low. If Ramsey returns, I like it even more. Even if he doesn’t, I would bet this line up to Jaguars -2.
