Evan Engram
Longest Reception Under 17.5 Yards (-115)
Engram has cleared this prop in four of six games this season, but a lot of that is because he's averaging 7.3 receptions per game. I'm in line with his receptions market tonight and have him projected for closer to 4.8. In theory, he should have 2.5 fewer chances to clear this number tonight than he has all season.
Engram is not seeing targets downfield, as his 3.7 average depth of target is seventh lowest among qualified wide receivers and tight ends. He's very good after the catch, though, averaging 5.6 yards after the catch.
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Engram faces a tough matchup tonight against a Saints defense that has been great against TEs over the past couple of seasons. This year, New Orleans ranks fourth in DVOA against opposing tight ends.
To help us, Saints LB Demario Davis and safety Tyrann Mathieu are able to suit up. This market is also assuming that Trevor Lawrence starts, but the market would drop if he sits and C.J. Beathard gets the call.
I have Engram staying under this 60% of the time.
bet365 has the best odds at -115, but BetMGM and DraftKings are at -120.
