Saints vs Rams Best Bets, Props | Thursday Night Football
NFL Week 16 starts at SoFi Stadium with Saints vs Rams best bets for tonight's Thursday Night Football.
Our staff of NFL betting analysts are all over TNF with this betting preview. One expert is on the Rams bandwagon and likes Los Angeles to cover the spread, while two others are targeting the player props market. Check out their Saints vs Rams best bets below.
Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific TNF bet discussed in this article.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
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Saints vs. Rams Best Bets
By Ricky Henne
The public and sharps both love Los Angeles laying the points, and I’m in total agreement.
The Saints have skated by all year thanks to a schedule peppered with the league’s worst offenses. They’ve played seven games against teams ranked in the bottom 10 in DVOA, going 6-1 straight up (SU) and 3-4 against the spread (ATS). On the other hand, they’re 1-6 SU and ATS against teams with competent offenses. Not only that, but they’re allowing 26.0 PPG in those seven games compared to just 12.1 in the others.
Additionally, the Saints have faced only one team ranked in the top 10 in offensive DVOA, which is remarkable considering there’s only three weeks left in the season. That team was the sixth-ranked Lions, and it wasn’t pretty as New Orleans allowed a season-high 33 points.
Furthermore, despite facing soft offenses all year, New Orleans has struggled defending the run. The Saints are 24th in DVOA and gave up 142 yards on the ground to the Lions. Now, they must corral Kyren Williams, who is Pro Football Focus’ fourth-ranked rusher and is averaging 124.3 yards per game since returning from injury. Los Angeles is averaging 33.0 PPG with him back in the fold, scoring 37, 36, 31 and 28 points in those games.
I’m playing the trends when it comes to New Orleans against average or better offenses, and will happily take this up to -5.
Pick: Rams -4
Saints vs. Rams
After an off game, this should be a spot where Hill gets more run.
The Rams have a mediocre rush defense and Hill has had solid volume in most games in recent weeks. Hill has hit the over on this number in five of the last seven games and is averaging a solid 26 rushing yards per game on the season.
Los Angeles is eighth in rushing yards allowed to opposing QBs this season – while that rarely matters to Hill, it is a plus. Hill has had five-plus rush attempts in five of his last seven games and the Saints have given Hill fewer than three rushes only three times this season.
I have Hill projected a full eight yards over this number and would hit it all the way to 19.5.
Pick: Taysom Hill Over 16.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Saints vs. Rams
Since his return from suspension in Week 4, Kamara leads all running backs in targets, receptions and receiving yards. There has been only one game this season in which he was targeted fewer than five times.
The Rams have scored 28 or more points in four consecutive games, and the potential for the Saints to face a negative game script is high. In games the Saints have lost this season (in which Kamara played), the Saints running back has averaged an astounding eight receptions for 50.2 yards per game.
Quite simply, 29.5 is too low for a player who has cleared that threshold in 81% of his games. This number should be closer to 35.5 and I won't be surprised if it starts to head in that direction.
Play Kamara over 29.5 receiving yards up to 33.5.
Pick: Alvin Kamara Over 29.5 Receiving Yards (-119)
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