Saints vs Rams Player Prop: Rashid Shaheed
WR Rashid Shaheed
Over 32.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115)
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Tonight is a great spot to invest in Shaheed.
The Rams defense is vulnerable to downfield throws, allowing the third-most yards per game on pass attempts 15+ yards downfield. Los Angeles also uses Cover 4 at the highest rate in the NFL, and Shaheed has torched Cover 4 in his first two seasons. He has the 11th-most yards on targets 15+ yards downfield against Cover 4 this year — and that's despite missing two games! As a rookie last season, Shaheed had the fourth-most receiving yards on targets 15+ yards downfield against Cover 4, despite not even becoming a full-time player until Week 12.
Shaheed has faced two other defenses that use Cover 4 at a top-seven rate the Texans and the Colts. He averaged 119 receiving yards in those two games.
I have two ways to invest in Shaheed tonight.
The first is to take the over on his rushing + receiving yards prop of Over 33.5 at DraftKings. If you only have access to over 32.5 rec yds, that’s fine. Take that. There was an extra yard tacked on if you include rushing yards, though, and I think it’s worth it. It’s around a 50/50 chance that Shaheed sees a rush attempt tonight, and he can typically get 4-10 yards when he does. Had a 44-yard run last year. Having access to his upside there is worth bumping this up a yard.
The other way to attack his over is to look at the alt markets. Here is Shaheed's range of outcomes in the market for receiving yards tonight:
| Yards | Over | Under | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40.5 | 50% | 50% | +101 |
| 50.5 | 40% | 60% | +149 |
| 60.5 | 31% | 69% | +226 |
| 70.5 | 23% | 77% | +329 |
| 80.5 | 17% | 83% | +499 |
| 90.5 | 13% | 87% | +663 |
| 100.5 | 10% | 90% | +931 |
Shaheed has a wide range of outcomes, so he’s the perfect type of player to invest in there. DraftKings has Over 62.5 yards at +475. I’m showing a fair price closer to +245.
For the first market, I project Shaheed's median for rushing + receiving yards at 42.5, giving him a 60% chance of going over 33.5, which was the line as of 2:50 p.m. ET. Now, we get an extra yard! That's my official play tonight.
Pick: Rashid Shaheed Over 32.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
