Seahawks vs. Saints Odds & Picks
| Pick |
|---|
| 1H Under 21 |
| Saints -4 |
| Jameis Winston Over 202.5 Passing Yards |
1H Under 21
Stuckey: The range of outcomes for this game is pretty wide here with these two quarterbacks. However, I expect both offenses to come out with a very conservative game plan to avoid any early costly mistakes in what should be a lower-scoring game. I just can't see the Seahawks offense doing much against this elite Saints defense and this subpar Seattle defense can actually hang with this conservative New Orleans offense that lacks explosive weapons on the outside.
In regards to the spread, this is the month you want to back Saints head coach Sean Payton. In October, he's 37-18-1 (67.3%) ATS since 2005. Only Bill Belichick has been more profitable over that span. However, that means you have to back the highly-volatile Jameis Winston as a 5-point favorite, which hasn't worked out too well in the past:
- Winston 8-16-1 ATS as a favorite
- 18-10-1 ATS as an underdog of three or more points
I personally believe the line is a tad high, but not enough to pull the trigger on Geno Smith and the Seahawks as a home dog against a Saints team coming off of a bye. I foresee that this game is a grinder early on, so I went with the 1H under instead of the game under, which could be more susceptible to mistakes by either QB if one of these teams is forced to pass more frequently in comeback mode later in the game. I’d bet this to 20.5.
Read my complete breakdown of the game — and this pick — in my MNF guide here.
Saints -4
Raheem Palmer: I've never been a big trends guy, but since 1999, road favorites coming off a bye are 83-42-2 ATS and 97-37 straight up. And the Saints are a match for their Monday Night Football showdown against the Seahawks.
The Seahawks had a solid performance in their Week 6 loss to the Steelers, coming back from a 14-0 halftime deficit to tie the game and take it into overtime. Still, Geno Smith had an aDOT of just 3.4 yards, and it's clear Seattle won't be able to rely on simply running the ball against a Saints defense that's second in rush defense DVOA and eighth in rushing success rate (43.7%).
I'm still pricing the loss of Russell Wilson to Smith as one of the biggest drop-offs we would see from a starting quarterback to a backup in the NFL, and I think it could rear its ugly head in this matchup.
The Seahawks are still a bad defense that ranks 22nd in defensive DVOA and has benefited from a favorable schedule of opposing offenses. Outside of the Titans, Vikings and Rams, the Seahawks opened the season in Carson Wentz's first start with the Colts after not playing or practicing during the preseason, a 49ers team that lost Jimmy Garoppolo mid-game and had to turn to rookie Trey Lance, and the Steelers with an old Ben Roethlisberger. Although a washed up Big Ben didn't take advantage of this defense that's 31st in Dropback Success Rate (54.1%), I'm confident Jameis Winston will.
I'll back the Saints at -4 and would play this up to 5.5.
Jameis Winston Over 202.5 Passing Yards
Michael Arinze: The performances haven't necessarily been great for the Saints, but they're still 3-2 on the year and in position for a playoff spot. A bye in Week 6 could be precisely what the Saints needed to recalibrate for their remaining 12 games on the season.
The Saints are 17th in Football Outsiders' Offensive DVOA and ninth in Pass DVOA. However, they're 31st with 169.4 passing yards per game. With their bye week now over, I suspect that the Saints took a hard look at their offense and had plenty of thought on how to improve it. We've seen some glimpses over the last two weeks with quarterback Jameis Winston finally throwing for over 200 passing yards. His last game was the first time this season he had at least 30 passing attempts. Perhaps New Orleans head coach Sean Payton is starting to trust Winston a bit more and open up the offense for him.
Next up for New Orleans is a road trip to Seattle on Monday night. The Saints will take on a Seahawks team that's 22nd overall in Defensive DVOA, but 24th in DVOA against the pass. Moreover, Seattle is 27th in allowing opponents 292 passing yards per game.
This is an excellent buy-low spot for Winston, and I believe we can expect to see further improvement coming out of the bye week. As a result, it makes sense to play the over in Winston's passing yards prop while it's still available at 202.5. I'm comfortable playing the number up to 205.
