Salt Lake Stallions-San Diego Fleet AAF Betting Guide: Is San Diego Being Overvalued?

Betting Odds: Salt Lake Stallions at San Diego Fleet

• Spread: San Diego -6.5
• Over/Under: 36
• Time: 8 p.m. ET on Saturday
• TV: NFL Network

Betting market: The Fleet shockingly opened as 6-point favorites despite losing their starting quarterback to the injured reserve list. I'd be shocked if that line holds for long, although the game total of 36 points indicates there isn't expected to be much scoring from either team anyway.

Week 4 Takeaways

Salt Lake's 20-11 Loss to Orlando

• Josh Woodrum played mistake-free football for most of this past Saturday night, completing 16-of-22 passes for 161 scoreless-yards. Still, he's engineered the league's least efficient pass offense in terms of yards per attempt this season despite playing in the third-most run-heavy scheme.
• Branden Oliver (52%) led the way with 17 carries last week, but left the game early with a groin injury. His potential absence would lead to plenty of early-down snaps for Joel Bouagnon as well as an enhanced workload for Terrell Newby. The Stallions signed Nick Holley this week for added backfield depth and also have Matt Asiata on the roster.
• De'Mornay Pierson-El played 79% of the offense's snaps last week and is locked in as the offense's featured slot receiver. Brian Tyms (55% snaps), Kenny Bell (54%), Kaelin Clay (50%) and Adnois Jennings (50%) essentially formed a four-man committee to fill the remaining wide receivers positions in the Stallions' run-first offense.

San Diego's 26-23 Loss to Memphis

• Starting quarterback Philip Nelson suffered a fractured clavicle and has been placed on the injured reserve list. Week 1 punching bag starter Mike Bercovici will get the nod over Week 4 backup Alex Ross. The two have combined to engineer exactly one touchdown drive in roughly six quarters of action.
• Ja'Quan Gardner (49% snap rate) and Terrell Watson (49%) were equally involved in Week 4. They've formed the AAF's most productive backfield in yards per carry with 5.4, although the expected return of Bishop Sankey ([) could potentially lead to reduced opportunities for both incumbent backs.
• Brian Brown (82% snap rate), Nelson Spruce (76%) and Dontez Ford (60%) formed the Fleet's 3-WR sets, but Mike Martz seems to have his heart set on continuing to feature the tight end position. The good news is that Gavin Escobar (75% snaps) and Marcus Baugh (49%) are capable of lining up and producing as pure receivers.

Which team is healthier? Salt Lake

San Diego has suffered the biggest injury of the season with quarterback Philip Nelson (fractured clavicle, IR) out indefinitely.

The good news for the Fleet is that stud defensive end Damontre Moore practiced in full on Wednesday and is expected to return to action on Saturday. The outlook for linebacker A.J. Tarpley (back) is less clear after he failed to practice to start the week.

Salt Lake is thought to only be dealing with an injury to starting running back Branden Oliver (groin), who failed to practice in any capacity on Wednesday. We would expect Joel Bouagnon and Terrell Newby to get most of the work if Oliver is ultimately unable to suit up, but recently-signed Nick Holley and ever-annoying vulture Matt Asiata could also see some snaps.

Key matchup: Salt Lake's Offensive Line vs. San Diego's Pass Rush

The Fleet have the league's most dangerous pass rush thanks to defensive end Damontre Moore, who is one of only two defenders in the league with at least 20 pressures despite missing last week's game.

San DIego boasts Pro Football Focus' No. 1 pass rush grade after four weeks.

And then we have Salt Lake, which combines the league's largest offensive line with an offense designed to get the ball out of the quarterback's hands as quickly as possible. Josh Woodrum's average release time of 2.2 seconds is a full 0.22 seconds quicker than the next closest signal caller.

San Diego's ability to stop the run and pressure the quarterback has helped it allow only 16 points per game this season. Still, Salt Lake's quick-hitting system could be the perfect antidote against this type of defense.

DFS edge: Cheap RBs

The potential absence of Oliver would likely lead to Joel Bouagnon ($5,300) working as the starter and early-down workhorse, but Terrell Newby ($3,300) actually out-snapped Bouagnon in Week 4 and carries a more fantasy friendly role thanks to his status as the offense's pass-down back.

Meanwhile, a lack of Week 4 production and the return of Bishop Sankey has caused Ja'Quan Gardner's price tag to nose dive.

We were (rightfully) calling Gardner the league's best running back before last week's dud, so the week's largest salary decrease among the AAF's eight starting running backs should be exploited.

Bet to watch: Salt Lake +6.5

I actually thought the Stallions would be favored in this matchup. Traveling to face the league's best pass rush is far from ideal, but I'm expecting Woodrum's aforementioned quick trigger to help alleviate some of those concerns.

Also, I wouldn't call you crazy for just taking the Stallions moneyline. Let's live a little, fam!