We have one more game for Wild Card Weekend, so that's one more player prop.
I'm on a Sam Darnold over for Vikings vs. Rams tonight. The Los Angeles pass rush has picked it up late in the season, and I expect the Vikings QB will be on the run tonight.
Let's get into it.
Vikings vs. Rams Player Props
The Vikings went 14-3 this season and only trailed for 21% of snaps, which was the lowest rate in the NFL. They're 2.5-point favorites tonight, which suggests they should see yet another leading game script.
It also implies, though, that Minnesota is projected to trail 36% of its snaps based on the average 2.5-point spread, which is +15% higher than its season average.
As always, this doesn’t necessarily mean the Vikings will trail at any point tonight or that I think they will trail for roughly one-third of the game. What it does tell me is that Darnold’s dropback rate should be expected to be a bit higher tonight.
I’m projecting Darnold to dropback about 39 times tonight against a Rams defense that ranks in the top 10 in terms of pressure rate. The Vikings have allowed a league-high 41% pressure rate since LT Christian Darrisaw went down in Week 9. Cam Robinson has really struggled to fill in and has a tough matchup tonight against rookie Jared Verse and the Rams D-line.
Therefore, I’m projecting Darnold to face pressure on about 16 of his dropbacks. Darnold’s scramble rate goes up from 2.3% from a clean pocket to 8.1% when under pressure.
Based on his expected dropbacks and pressure rates, I’m projecting him to scramble about twice tonight.
Darnold has averaged 7.9 yards a scramble this season (with a median of seven yards). So, this typically will be enough to get him over 10.5. The Rams have allowed 9.1 yards per scramble, which is the sixth-most yards in the NFL, so Darnold could see an extra yard or two when he does choose to scramble.
Even if Darnold were to clear this number by 1-2 yards, we'd still need to worry about kneel-downs at the end of a potential Vikings win. Darnold leads the NFL with 23 kneel downs this season, thanks in large part to the Vikings 14-3 record and 11 of those 14 wins leading to Darnold taking knees between one and three times in the victory formation.
The Vikings' implied win probability is 57% tonight, which is 25% lower than their 82% win percentage on the season. One way of thinking about that is the odds of Darnold getting kneel-downs is significantly lower than his season-long rate.
I have a fair projection for his kneel downs closer to 0.9 and when you consider Darnold has 12 designed run/sneak/draw plays this season, averaging 1.5 a rush on those types of runs. Those types of runs tend to cancel out the kneel-down risk most of the time in my simulations
I’m projecting his median closer to 13.5 with around a 60% chance Darnold clears 10.5 rushing yards. I like his upside even more when you factor in the potential for a trailing game script that would lead to more dropbacks, more scramble upside and lowered kneel down potential.
If this number has moved by the time you read this, I still see slight value on 13.5.
| Yards | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 8.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 9.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 10.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 11.5 | 56% | 44% |
| 12.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 13.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 14.5 | 48% | 52% |
