Betting Odds: San Antonio Commanders at Atlanta Legends
- Spread: Legends -1.5
- Over/Under: 40.5
- Time: 4 p.m. ET on Sunday
- TV: CBS Sports Network
Betting market: The Legends have held steady as 1.5-point favorites since open. The over/under also hasn't moved since opening at 40.5 points.
Week 5 Takeaways
San Antonio's 29-25 Win Over Arizona
Logan Woodside had a quarterback rating of 120.7 in Week 5 after failing to clear even 70 in Weeks 1 through 4. The Commanders' two-game win streak and Woodside's season-best performance seem to have cemented his spot as the team's starting quarterback over Marquise Williams, who hasn't played a snap since Week 3.
Note that San Antonio boasts the league's worst defense in yards allowed per pass and rush attempt.
Atlanta's 23-20 Win Over Memphis
Aaron Murray has played exceptionally well in his first two starts, regularly completing passes down the field into tight windows. The Legends have scored 37 combined points in his two starts compared to just 30 in Weeks 1-3.
Starting running back Tarean Folston also deserves credit for his efficient play during the Legends' comeback win in Week 5, although he still played just 46% of the offense's snaps.
Which team is healthier? San Antonio
Only tight end Cole Hunt (lower leg) and defensive lineman Joey Mbu (ankle) were unable to practice Wednesday for San Antonio.
The Commanders are otherwise healthy. Kenneth Farrow notably isn't even listed on the injury report after he seemed to get banged up at one point in Week 5.
The Legends have a few more questions. Defensive lineman Tavaris Barnes (shoulder), running back Lawrence Pittman (ankle) and defensive back Damian Swann (ankle) started the week off with a DNP. The outlook is a bit more positive for stud safety Ed Reynolds (groin) and wide receiver Ervin Phillips (groin), who at least managed to start the week with a limited practice session.
Key matchup: Aaron Murray vs. San Antonio's secondary
The Commanders have allowed a league-worst 7.98 yards per attempt and 255.6 yards per game through the air this season. Meanwhile, Murray has been both accurate (61.9% completion rate) and efficient (7.1 yards per attempt) while regularly making tough throws downfield.
Aaron Murray is throwing some dimes!@TheAAF game play has been 🔥🔥🔥 now that every team seemingly has a competent quarterbackpic.twitter.com/srBhcJDzSW
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) March 10, 2019
Only cornerback De'Vante Bausb (No. 15) ranks among PFF's top-25 defensive backs while Atlanta wide receivers Montay Crockett (No. 8), Seantavius Jones (No. 17) and Malachi Jones (No. 21) all rank among the AAF's top-25 receivers in yards per route run.
DFS edge: San Antonio WRs
The Commanders and Legends join the Fleet as the only offenses that didn't have a running back play even 50% of their offense's snaps in Week 5. Both quarterbacks also saw a price increase. And Atlanta's pecking order at wide receiver is still murky with seven receivers playing between 19-67% of the offense's snaps last week.
That leaves us with San Antonio's wide receivers as the position group to target.
The Commanders don't have the world's greatest matchup against Atlanta's third-ranked defense in pass yards allowed per attempt, but their wide receivers' price tags are still a bit too cheap given their average opportunity:
- Greg Ward ($4,300): No. 5 wide receiver in opportunities/dollar
- Mekale McKay ($5,800): No. 7
- De'Marcus Ayers ($4,600): No. 8
Note that Ayers played just 35% of the offense's snaps last week and has split time with Alonzo Moore.
Bet to watch: Atlanta -1.5
The Commanders' road streak combined with the Legends' superior play with Murray under center makes me confident that Atlanta can get the job done.
This week should be a good indicator of whether Woodside's and the San Antonio defense's impressive performances in Week 5 were a fluke or not.
