Betting Odds: San Diego Fleet at Arizona Hotshots
- Spread: Arizona -3.5
- Over/Under: 40
- Time: 4 p.m. ET on Sunday
- TV: CBS Sports Network
Betting market: The Hotshots opened as 3.5-point favorites and have remained there. The over/under has moved a half point since opening at 39.5.
Week 6 Takeaways
San Diego’s 32-29 Loss to Birmingham
Mike Bercovici continued to be a roller coaster of emotions under center last week, completing 17-of-34 (50%) passes for 311 yards (9.1 Y/A) with three touchdowns and two interceptions. Things turned out the best for the offense when Bercovici targeted Dontez Ford, who converted his three receptions into 182 scoreless-yards before leaving the game early with an ankle injury.
The Fleet continue to utilize a committee backfield with Terrell Watson leading the way on early downs and short yardage situations before ceding way to Ja'Quan Gardner and Bishop Sankey.
Arizona's 22-17 Win against Orlando
The Hotshots managed to prevent Steve Spurrier and Co. from sweeping the entire league — but it wasn't easy.
Orlando finished with more first downs (27 vs. 23) and yards (369 vs. 341) while easily winning the penalty battle (7-for-79 vs. 12-for-142). The areas where the Hotshots did win were turnovers (0 vs. 2) and, most importantly, points.
John Wolford helped lead the Hotshots to success in both of those categories, completing 16-of-27 passes for 162 yards and a touchdown. Jhurell Pressley (13 carries), Tim Cook (11) and Justin Stockton (12) had double-digit carries, although Pressley continued to dominate snaps. The offense immediately welcomed back Richard Mullaney into starting 2-WR sets alongside star Rashad Ross.
Which team is healthier? Draw
The Fleet could be without their spark-plug receiver Dontez Ford, who was unable to practice Wednesday and remains in a walking boot. San Diego is otherwise believed to be approaching full health.
Arizona has a few more question marks to worry about, as studs Rashad Ross (shoulder) and running back Jhurell Pressley (wrist) were limited in practice to start the week. The good news is both have seemingly been playing through these injuries and are tentatively expected to suit up come game time.
Key matchup: Arizona's Office vs. San Diego's Front Seven
The Hotshots have mostly only been able to create big plays via downfield passes to Ross, although their offense has also managed to consistently move the ball on the ground. Their average of 4.65 yards per rush is the second-highest mark in the AAF.
The problem is that the Hotshots are facing arguably the league's stiffest rush defense. San Diego (3.46) joins Salt Lake (3.08) as the only defenses that have held opposing running backs to fewer than 3.5 yards per carry this season.
Additionally, Damontre Moore and Co. have earned the Fleet Pro Football Focus' No. 1 pass-rush grade. The Hotshots boast PFF's No. 3 and No. 6 ranked offensive line in pass blocking and run blocking, respectively.
Failure to contain what is likely the league's best front seven won't help Wolford keep the offense on the field, which could be a death sentence for the Hotshots considering their preference to move at a blistering pace.
DFS edge: Jhurell Pressley is still too cheap
Pressley was our highlighted option in DFS last week thanks to his high snap share and consistent workload. He boasted the second-highest opportunity per dollar score among all running backs and responded with the position's second-highest scoring performance.
Fast forward to this week and … Pressley's price tag has only increased by $100! He has the best opportunity per dollar score among all backs in Week 7.
Only T-Rich (20.2), Zac Stacy (16.8), Kenneth Farrow (16.8) and Pressley (15.2) have managed to receive at least 15 combined carries and targets per game.
Bet to watch: San Diego +3.5
The Mike Bercovici experience has certainly had its ups and downs, but he's at least managed to keep the Fleet in the game thanks to his big-play ability and willingness to take chances downfield.
The Fleet seem to have the advantage in the trenches on both sides of the ball. And the Hotshots' win over Orland wasn't a convincing enough performance for me to like their chances against Mike Martz and Co.
