San Diego Fleet-Memphis Express AAF Betting Guide: How Much of an Upgrade Is Zach Mettenberger?

Betting Odds: San Diego Fleet at Memphis Express

• Spread: San Diego -6.5
• Over/Under: 39.5
• Time: 4 p.m. ET on Saturday
• TV: B/R Live

Betting market: There's been movement on the spread and the over/under, as San Diego opened as a -5.5 favorite with a total of 41 points.

The public apparently doesn't think Zach Mettenberger will prove to be much of an upgrade over whatever the hell the Christian Hackenberg experience was supposed to be.

Week 3 Takeaways

San Diego's 31-11 Win Over San Antonio

• Philip Nelson is entrenched as the Fleet's starting quarterback and had his finest performance in last week's win. He rebounded brilliantly after throwing an interception on the game's first play to complete 17-of-25 passes (68%) for 193 yards (7.7 yard per attempt) and a pair of touchdowns.
• San Diego was the only team to utilize only two running backs in Week 3. Terrell Watson and Ja'Quan Gardner racked up double-digit touches for the second time in as many weeks, though Watson (60% snaps) was the offense's preferred goal-line and two-point conversion back over Gardner (40%).
• Nelson Spruce has emerged as the clear-cut No. 1 receiver for the Fleet. Brian Brown and tight end Gavin Escobar were the only other receivers to play at least 65% of the offense's snaps in Week 3, as Francis Owusu and Dontez Ford played just 22% and 40% of the offense's snaps, respectively. Spruce is one of only seven receivers with at least 25% of his team's air yard market share (per NoExtraPoints.com).

Memphis' 21-17 Loss to Orlando

• Zac Stacy keeps racking up touches despite Sherman Badie and Terrence Magee continuing to stay involved. Overall, Stacy (49% snaps) was one of only two lead backs who failed to play at least half of their offense's snaps in Week 3. Still, Stacy's 50 touches are more than any AAF player not named Trent Richardson can attest to having through three weeks.
• Reece Horn and Gerrard Sheppard led the way by playing 97% and 72% of the offense's snaps, respectively. Alton Howard and Devin Lucien played just 56% and 38% of the offense's snaps, while Dontez Byrd and tight end Brandon Barnes posted respective snap rates of 23% and 66%.
• Mettenberger had only 12 pass attempts, but he managed to throw more touchdowns (2) than Hackenberg managed in 63 attempts (0). The former LSU quarterback’s ability to consistently dice up the Orlando defense downfield was particularly impressive.

Which team is healthier? Memphis

Both teams are in solid shape after three weeks of action.

San Diego's only concerns are difference-making linebacker A.J. Tarpley (back), stud defensive end Damontre Moore (knee) and cornerback Jude Adjei-Barimah (wrist), who each failed to practice to start the week.

Memphis' only players to not practice in full to start the week was Stacy (illness), defensive tackle Julius Warmsley (ankle) and swing tackle Christian Morris (knee). It would be a surprise if Stacy is ultimately unable to suit up.

Key matchup: Memphis' Offensive Line vs. San Diego's Pass Rush

Mettenberger was pressured on 6-of-13 (46%) dropbacks during his season debut. This isn't exactly unusual for the Express, as they're tied with the Iron for the highest pressure rate allowed on offense (38.7%) after three weeks.

Next up is San Diego's league-best defense in pressure rate per dropback.

The Fleet's 54.5% pressure rate is well-above the Commanders' second-place mark of 49%, as Damontre Moore (No. 4 in Pro Football Focus' pass-rushing productivity metric) and Shakir Soto (No. 5) have each consistently made life rough on opposing signal callers.

DFS edge: San Diego RBs

Memphis has allowed the second-most yards per carry and joins Atlanta as the only units to allow more than 30 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields.

Gardner ($7,000) and Watson ($4,900) are set up brilliantly in this matchup, so why not play them both!? The AAF's version of Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram have each racked up double-digit touches in consecutive weeks and currently function as the only two-back committee in the league.

The Fleet are averaging an astronomical 6.3 yards per carry this season and have been plenty content to ram the ball down their opponent's throats since turning the offense over to Nelson over the past two weeks.

Take advantage of the league's clearest defined backfield outside of Birmingham before Watson's price inevitably rises.

Bet to watch: Memphis +6.5

Mettenberger played like a top three quarterback during his 30 minutes of action in Week 3 and managed to out-score the consensus top three team in the league. I'll take the points and continue to ride what's been a strong home field advantage to start the season.