49ers vs Vikings Odds, Prediction | Spread Pick for Monday Night Football
| 49ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 Even | 44 -110o / -110u | -310 |
| Vikings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -120 | 44 -110o / -110u | +250 |
49ers vs. Vikings odds have San Francisco laying seven points on Monday Night Football with a game total over/under of 44.
The Vikings’ season is potentially on the line — a 2-5 start would make it extremely difficult to snag a Wild Card spot, even in the NFC, as the Lions are seemingly running away with the division. Meanwhile, San Francisco finally lost last week in Cleveland and will be looking to bounce back, although there are some key injury concerns for Kyle Shanahan's team on offense. Christian McCaffrey is reportedly active, but Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams are out.
Check out my game Monday Night Football preview and 49ers vs. Vikings spread prediction, which includes three player props for George Kittle, below.
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49ers vs. Vikings
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the 49ers and Vikings match up statistically:
49ers vs. Vikings DVOA Breakdown
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 2 | 16 | |
| Pass DVOA | 1 | 15 | |
| Rush DVOA | 3 | 17 | |
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 16 | 4 | |
| Pass DVOA | 18 | 3 | |
| Rush DVOA | 24 | 22 |  |
The Vikings offense has graded out as a decent unit this year, but they have simply been doomed by horrible turnover luck following a season of extremely good fortune.
Minnesota ranks ninth in overall Success Rate, but just 18th in EPA per play due to those giveaways — many of which have been the result of flukey fumbles. If you remove plays with turnovers, Minnesota's offense skyrockets up to No. 7 overall in EPA per play, which is a more stable reading as to where they fit in the league.
The offensive line has played well thanks in large part to star left tackle Christian Darrisaw, who grades out as one of the best in the business.
However, the offense definitely lacked the same level of explosiveness and efficiency against the Bears last week, as opposed to what we saw earlier in the season. That's primarily due to the loss of star wide receiver Justin Jefferson, who hit the IR after an injury late in the contest against the Chiefs.
Not only is Jefferson arguably the best receiver in the NFL (I have him worth close to 1.5 points on the spread), the amount of attention that he draws naturally opens up everything else. In his absence, the pass-happy Vikings will have to rely on rookie Jordan Addison much more.
Bet 49ers-Vikings at FanDuel
On the other side of the ball, the Minnesota defense really lacks talent. However, new defensive coordinator Brian Flores is one of the best in the game, so he's maximized the production of this unit that surprisingly ranks right around league average in both EPA per play and Success Rate.
His stop unit has done a tremendous job of limiting explosive plays even with the league's highest blitz rate (57.9%). Without much of a natural pass rush, it's really the only way Flores' defense can generate pressure while forcing teams to methodically work down the field underneath without making a mistake. Despite that astronomical blitz rate, Minnesota only ranks 15th in pressure rate.
For what it's worth, Purdy has struggled much more against pressure. It's true of most quarterbacks, but his production gap between a clean pocket and under pressure is noticeably wider.
Plus, the 49ers are dealing with a number of key injuries on the offensive side of the ball, including star running back Christian McCaffrey, All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams and irreplaceable wideout Deebo Samuel. They are all currently listed as day-to-day, so their statuses are certainly worth monitoring. Even if they can go, they may be limited and less than 100%, which would certainly help an overmatched Minnesota defense.
The 49ers have one of the most complete rosters in the NFL. They are one of the clear Super Bowl favorites as long as they maintain reasonable health, which has certainly been an issue in recent seasons.
They do have a few potential weaknesses, including the offensive line outside of Williams, as well as the secondary when they are unable to get home with pressure with their outstanding defensive front and elite linebacker corps — although Dre Greenlaw's status remains in question ahead of this game.
49ers vs. Vikings
Betting Picks & Predictions
Given the injuries San Francisco is dealing with, I think the 49ers are laying too many points on the road against a competent Vikings squad, even without Jefferson. The defense has been better than advertised due to Flores, whom I expect will have a very good game plan with an extra day to prepare.
I like the Vikings at a touchdown or better and will also be looking to add some live betting if the Vikings go down early, which is very likely given how elite Kyle Shanahan's offense has been in the early scripted portion of games.
San Francisco has scored a league-high 38 points on its opening drives this season. It has also put up points on its opening drive in eight consecutive games, which is the longest streak over the last 50 seasons.
From a player prop perspective, I'd target George Kittle, whom I believe has a very good matchup against the blitz-heavy Vikings, especially if the 49ers are missing a few key weapons.
As my esteemed colleague Chris Raybon pointed out, Kittle leads the 49ers in yards and catches against the blitz this season, while ranking second among all tight ends in yards per route against the blitz.
Even going back to last year, Purdy has always looked to Kittle when defenses bring extra pressure. He's in line for a big game, so I'd target him in the yards, catches and anytime touchdown markets. His best number to find the endzone is at bet365 (+175).
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