Seahawks vs 49ers Odds
| Seahawks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 +100 | 43 -108o / -113u | +150 |
| 49ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -121 | 43 -108o / -113u | -180 |
Week 15 kicks off with us looking for a 49ers vs Seahawks pick.
After a stellar 6-3 start, the Seahawks have lost three of their last four games and are fighting for their playoff lives the rest of the season. Any hopes they have of a miraculous AFC West win would be gone with a loss here.
The 49ers, meanwhile, have started three quarterbacks this season but are still among the favorites in the NFC. Brock Purdy should suit up, but he is questionable.
Seahawks vs 49ers Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Seahawks and 49ers match up statistically:
49ers vs Seahawks DVOA Breakdown
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 10 | 21 | |
| Pass DVOA | 6 | 18 | |
| Rush DVOA | 19 | 26 | |
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 9 | 2 | |
| Pass DVOA | 5 | 5 | |
| Rush DVOA | 23 | 2 | |
When the 49ers Have the Ball
The 49ers offense has been hit hard with injuries the past couple of weeks. San Francisco lost Jimmy Garoppolo to a season-ending injury in Week 13 and Deebo Samuel to a multi-week injury last week. Purdy is questionable due to an oblique injury and will be making his first-ever road start in the NFL, in one of the more hostile environments at Lumen Field.
The 49ers will likely have a run-heavy game plan since they’ll want to attack a Seahawks run defense that ranks 26th in DVOA and has allowed 5.7 yards per carry over the past four games. I expect a busy night for running backs Christian McCaffery and Jordan Mason.
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When the Seahawks Have the Ball
Geno Smith is coming off one of his worst performances in a stellar 2022 season, throwing two costly interceptions in a 30-24 loss to the Panthers at home.
One of the reasons I predicted Smith to struggle last week was the absence of Kenneth Walker in the backfield. Smith has thrived on play-action passes this season and ranked 1st in QB rating heading into Week 14 on those plays. Last week was the first time he didn’t have Rashaad Penny or Walker in the backfield, so it was no surprise that he struggled on play action, going 2-for-4 with 29 yards passing.
In fact, his four dropbacks on play action were the lowest all season, as he has averaged 8.8 play action dropbacks a game on the season.
With Walker expected to return against the 49ers, I think we see Smith bounce back with a better performance, despite the tougher matchup against a 49ers defense that ranks first in weighted DVOA, which values more recent games more.
Betting Picks
Look for Smith to bounce back this week with Walker back. The play-action passing game will be much more of a threat with the rookie back after a rough week against Carolina.
This is a tough matchup against one of the top defenses in the league, but DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are one of the best WR duos in the game, so I think they should be able to keep this game close.
The 49ers have been decimated by injuries of late, and the loss of Deebo Samuel is a big one. He’s one of the most dynamic playmakers in the game and without him, it puts even more pressure on Purdy, who will be making his first road start in the NFL, also on a short week.
The 49ers could clinch the NFC West with a win here, but Seattle is playing for its playoff lives and has more at stake. I think the Seahawks have a shot to win outright here, but I’d rather take the key number of +3.5 since the most likely outcome is the 49ers winning by three points.
The line was moving toward Seahawks +3, but BetMGM, BetRivers and DraftKings still had it available as of 10 p.m. ET on Wednesday night.
Pick: Seahawks +3.5 |
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