The San Francisco 49ers (2-3) and Seattle Seahawks (3-2) open NFL Week 6 on Thursday Night Football tonight. Kickoff is at 8:15 p.m. ET from Seattle's Lumen Field, and the game will be broadcast on Prime Video.
The 49ers are consensus 3.5-point favorites over the Seahawks (49ers -3.5) after the spread opened at 49ers -5 before the season. The over/under is 48.5 after starting Thursday at 49. San Francisco's moneyline is -200 and Seattle is +165 to pull off the upset at home.
The 49ers lost last week 24-23 to the Cardinals, their third defeat in their last four games. Brock Purdy has 6 touchdowns and 4 interceptions through 5 games and is completing a career-low 65.6% of passes. The Seahawks lost to the Giants 29-20 for their second straight defeat. Seattle is still one game ahead of San Francisco in first place in the NFC West. Geno Smith only has 5 touchdowns through 5 games, while Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet have a combined 7 rushing touchdowns.
Let's to my 49ers vs. Seahawks prediction and my NFL picks and predictions for Thursday Night Football.
49ers vs. Seahawks Expert Picks
Spread
The full game line has been holding steady at 49ers -3.5, which I’m pretty much in line with, but I always hesitate to take -3.5 given how often teams win by exactly three. I think the 49ers are the right side given their offense is due for some positive regression in the red zone and the extreme mismatch of Nick Bosa vs. Seahawks offensive tackle Stone Forsythe.
The NFC West always has this weird consistency in terms of how teams match up. For whatever reason, the Cardinals always seem to give the 49ers fits, while San Francisco tends to dominate the Rams and Seahawks. The Niners have won five straight against Seattle by 12 or more points, which tells me they've simply had the upper hand in this particular matchup.
The first-half angle is sneaky here, considering the 49ers tend to get out to early leads only to let teams claw back in the second half. We’ve seen this trend throughout Kyle Shanahan’s career, and it can be attributed to him being an offensive-minded genius who always has a solid opening game script but is a questionable in-game manager. The 49ers are 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in the first half this season and just 2-3 for the full game.
I think the most likely outcome in the first half is the 49ers winning by three, so I like the idea of taking -2.5 here to avoid losing by the hook if you’re considering the full game at -3.5.
Moneyline
I'm not betting either moneyline for this game.
Over/Under
My projection is 47, but I don't see enough on either side of the total to make a pick.
My pick: 49ers 1H -2.5 (-110)
49ers vs. Seahawks Odds, Spread, Over/Under, Moneyline
| 49ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 / -110 | -200 |
| Seahawks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 / -110 | +165 |
- 49ers vs. Seahawks Spread: 49ers -3.5 (-110)
- 49ers vs. Seahawks Over/Under: 48.5 points
- 49ers vs. Seahawks Moneyline: 49ers -200, Seahawks +165
- 49ers vs. Seahawks Pick:49ers 1H -2.5 (-110)
My Seahawks vs. 49ers best bet is backing the Niners on the first-half spread. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
- 74% of bets and 82% of the money are on the 49ers to cover the spread.
- 68% of bets and 64% of the money are on the over.
- 77% of bets and 81% of the money on the moneyline are on the 49ers.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks Thursday Night Football Preview
Despite Christian McCaffrey not playing a snap this season as he remains on injured reserve with Achilles/calf injuries, the 49ers offense has still been one of the best in the NFL. Last season, they averaged the most yards and points scored per drive. They've continued their strong offensive play and are averaging the second-most yards per drive.
San Francisco only ranks eighth in points per drive, though. That discrepancy is largely due to a low red-zone touchdown rate, scoring on just 41% of red-zone trips, the fourth lowest in the league. While McCaffrey’s absence could explain some of this, I think a lot of it is simply bad luck and we should expect the Niners to convert more red-zone trips into touchdowns moving forward.
Last week, one of the 49ers' red-zone drives ended in a costly first-and-goal fumble by Jordan Mason, which played a big role in allowing the Cardinals to pull off a 24-23 upset win. The market is likely underrating San Francisco, but all three of its losses have been by one score while both wins were blowouts. This indicates that the Niners are a better team than their record suggests.
The 49ers will face a Seahawks defense that has shown improvement under former Ravens defensive coordinator Mike McDonald, ranking 13th in DVOA this season compared to 28th last year. However, Seattle’s defense has struggled recently, allowing 42 points to the Lions and 29 points last week to a Giants team that was without top WR Malik Nabers. It makes me question how good Seattle really is, considering its stronger performances have come against inexperienced QBs like Bo Nix (in his NFL debut), Jacoby Brissett and the combination of Skylar Thompson and Tim Boyle.
The 49ers offense is certainly on par with the Lions and should be able to move the ball and score against the Seahawks. Seattle is also dealing with key injuries and could be short-handed on the short week. The Seahawks will be without edge rusher Uchenna Nwosu, first-round rookie DT Byron Murphy and CB Tariq Woolen. Those absences increase the 49ers’ chances of breaking through in the red zone.
The Seahawks offense has been extremely pass-heavy this season, as their +7.7% PROE (pass rate over expected) leads the NFL. However, they’ll be up against a stiff test in a 49ers defense that ranks in Pass DVOA.
While the Seahawks have an elite RB in Kenneth Walker and arguably one of the best WR trios in the league with DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Tyler Lockett, there’s a major mismatch on the offensive line that could cause serious problems and derail their offense at times on Thursday night.
RT Stone Forsythe, who has been filling in for George Fant (injured reserve, knee), has allowed the most QB hurries (20) and most QB pressures (25) of any offensive lineman in the NFL this season. He’ll likely be matched up against Nick Bosa for most of the night, which is a nightmare scenario for Seattle.
Forsythe vs. Bosta is a glaring mismatch that could be a key factor in the game. Geno Smith could be under constant (and quick) pressure coming from his right side, which could force Seattle into shorter and quicker passes that would potentially limit their offense.
Prediction: 49ers 1H -2.5 (-110)
How to Watch: Time, Channel, Streaming
| Location | Lumen Field |
| Date | Thursday, Oct. 10 |
| Kickoff Time | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming | Prime Video |
Seahawks vs. 49ers is scheduled for an 8:15 p.m. ET start time, live from Lumen Field in Seattle on Thursday night. The game will be broadcast live by Prime Video.
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