Saquon Barkley and Justin Jefferson represent the most popular NFL player prop bets for Sunday's wild card round tilt: Giants vs. Vikings.
Our premier data analytics expert Nick Giffen assessed the value for these most popular picks, which primarily target the anytime TD marketplace.
View more NFL player prop projections, lines and odds here!
Giants vs. Vikings Most Popular NFL Player Prop Bets
- Saquon Barkley to score an anytime touchdown (-120)
- Justin Jefferson to score an anytime touchdown (+115)
- Justin Jefferson to record over 95.5 receiving yards (-115)
*Odds and data are according to PointsBet as of Saturday afternoon.
Out of these odds, Saquon Barkley to score a touchdown is by far the best line.
Barkley's fair value odds are -160, or 61.5% implied odds. Meanwhile, the price at PointsBet is -120. That's a roughly 7% betting edge on Barkley to get into the end zone against the Vikings — like he did when they faced off on Christmas Eve.
A 7% betting edge implies that you're receiving a 7% discount on that line relative to its fair price.
There isn't much value on Justin Jefferson's most popular prop bets — he's too overvalued by the market and the public.
His fair value line is +122 while PointsBet prices its line at +115. That means you're paying a 1.5% premium. Make sure to always line shop to see if that market price ever exceeds +122, though.
And Jefferson's receiving yard prop should be closer to 83 yards, according to Giffen. At over 95.5 receiving yards, you're losing a substantial amount of value.
