Saquon Barkley Longest Rush Over 16.5 Yards (-120)
Packers vs Giants | 8:15 p.m. ET
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Saquon Barkley has been the poster boy for the longest-rush exotic market over the last four weeks. Owning a bell-cow role under Tommy DeVito's offense, Barkley always has moments where his bursts are on full display and he cranks out a big play.
His 36.4% breakaway percentage ranks fifth best among qualified running backs, per Pro Football Focus, and he's successfully cleared this prop in five straight games. During this stretch, he's faced three consecutive top-10 rush defenses and still went over this prop; an impressive feat.
Barkley now visits a struggling Green Packers defense that's been constantly beaten on the ground over the last month. The Packers rank 24th in DVOA vs. the run and seventh in explosive play percentage. Six different running backs, including Austin Ekeler (a pedestrian 3.7 YPC), had a 20+ yard longest rush in their last four games.
To add on that, Packers stud linebacker Quay Walker, who ties for third-best on the team with an 8.0% rush stop percentage, per Pro Football Focus, will be inactive tonight.
Barkley can make a significant play even if the game gets out of hand in the second half — which is different from placing all confidence in his cumulative rushing yards. All we need is one big play, and I love the chances of that continuing tonight.
Pick: Saquon Barkley Longest Rush Over 16.5 Yards (-120 at ESPN BET)
