I have zero interest in picking a side for this week’s Thursday Night Football game. However, I do have two player props I project value on.
My favorite way to pick NFL player props is using PrizePicks, an app that allows you to parlay together different props and wager real money on them in 30 states, including states where online betting access remains unavailable.
That said, here’s my PrizePicks card for Thursday Night Football.
Geno Smith
Under 242.5 Passing Yards
Geno Smith is the NFL’s feel-good story. He’s fourth in EPA+CPOE composite while leading the league in completion percentage (71.9%). He stormed onto the scene and led Seattle to a 7-6 record and the fifth-best Offensive DVOA metric.
Smith, D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are the foundation of a great NFL offense. Despite Seattle’s recent struggles, that isn’t hyperbole, as Smith has eclipsed 242.5 pass yards in five straight games.
That said, this is an impossible matchup.
San Francisco is fifth in Pass Defense DVOA, including third against No. 1 wide receivers and ninth against No. 2 wide receivers. Smith, Metcalf, and Lockett are in for a long afternoon against the Niners.
Only four of the 13 opposing quarterbacks have cashed their passing yards this season, and two were from Tua Tagovailoa and Patrick Mahomes.
The Niners held Smith to just 197 passing yards in Week 2, the quarterback’s second-lowest of the season. There are some injuries on the Niner defense, and Smith has improved his efficiency since Week 2, but it’s hard to imagine him upping his yardage total by 50 in his second try.
Short weeks are always tough on offenses, too. So despite how hot the Seattle one is, I’ll happily fade Smith in this primetime matchup.
PICK: Under 242.5 pass yards
Christian McCaffrey
Under 78.5 Rushing Yards
Christian McCaffery was limited in practice on both Monday and Tuesday. He’s listed as questionable to play Thursday night with a knee injury.
I expect McCaffery to play, but there’s a chance he’s not 100%. I could see Kyle Shanahan leaning on other running backs, especially on a short week.
The injury is the main reason I’m fading him, but there’s no reason to expect McCaffery to eclipse this number.
McCaffery has cashed over 78.5 rushing yards in only four of 13 games this season. He’s averaging less than 60 rushing yards per game over the last five, staying well under this line in four.
Seattle’s rush defense is abysmal, arguably the worst in the NFL. But I don’t see that as reason enough to expect a higher output from McCaffery – especially when he’s banged up on a short week.
McCaffery played 100% of his team’s snaps in his six weeks with Carolina. He’s played over 70% of potential offensive snaps only twice in seven weeks with San Francisco. I don’t see how McCaffery has the volume to eclipse this number.
The Action Labs Player Props Tool projects McCaffery for just 69 rushing yards on Thursday Night Football, providing us with enough edge to fade the superstar running back on PrizePicks.
PICK: Under 78.5 rush yards
