The first game of the NFL Wild Card Round is an NFC West rivalry game between the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers. San Francisco dominated in the regular season, winning both games and outscoring Seattle 48-20.
The 49ers have had their eyes set on a Super Bowl since opening kickoff. They started slow with a 4-4 record and are starting a third-string rookie quarterback, but the mission has never strayed. They've won 10 straight and look like the best team in the NFC.
Seattle entered this year with loads of questions, rookies starting all over the place and without their long-time franchise quarterback. The Seahawks answered the call early and massively overachieved with a 6-3 start. They stumbled down the stretch and feel more like a team happy to be here than a true threat.
When I bet on same game parlays, I like to build a game script and follow that to pick my bets. You may have guessed it, but my script has the 49ers dominating from start to finish.
49ers -9.5 (-110); Game Total Over 40.5 (-142)
It would be hypocritical to hype a big San Francisco win and then not back them with the spread. During the win streak, the 49ers are 8-2 against the spread — they don't just beat the opponents, they annihilate them.
Leading the Niners has been their defense. They are first in both points and yards allowed, and second in turnovers. They have even played above their standard against the Seahawks. Seattle has averaged a mere 10 points and 247 yards in head-to-head meetings.
The Seahawks' offensive struggles against the 49ers have permeated to problems in other games, too. In their last four games, they have averaged 16 points and have not had more than 210 yards of passing offense. They established the run in two of those games to move the ball. However, against the 49ers' top-ranked rushing defense, that likely will not be an option.
With Seattle’s offense set to be anemic once more, why would a low total be picked?
Simply put, that's how good San Francisco has been. Over this hot stretch, the 49ers over has hit in seven of 10 games. In five of their last six games, they have put up 33 points. This offense is loaded with talent at every position and is fully healthy. Whatever option a team chooses to take away, someone else will just step up.
The Seahawks offense will need to do little to help cross that over. All that could be needed is one big play. With Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf or Ken Walker, finding one big play shouldn’t be hard, especially if we are expecting garbage time.
Elijah Mitchell
60+ Rushing Yards (+280)
I'm picking the 49ers to win this game by a large amount, so at some point they need to run the clock out.
The first thought would be Christian McCaffrey. Maybe even Deebo Samuel. But those two are key players who will be needed in future rounds.
Enter Elijah Mitchell.
Mitchell, marred by injuries for most of the year, played well in his return last week. He had 55 yards rushing on five carries and two touchdowns.
He will have the benefit of being utilized early in the game as a complement to Christian McCaffrey. Then being the first back they go to when they need first downs to bleed time.
If the game script isn’t good enough, Seattle ranks 25th defensive rush DVOA. Once the 49ers get the opportunity to run the game out, they will be playing against the Seahawks' weakness.
Geno Smith
Under 227.5 Pass Yards (-115)
The fairy dust seemed to wear off onGeno Smith as the regular season came to a close. In his last four games, he averaged 212 yards and 1.25 touchdowns per game — far down from his 264 yards and 1.9 touchdowns per game.
Now, he is looking to break his slump against the best defense in the NFL. Far from ideal.
The biggest worry here is whether the game script working in his favor. However, when teams are forced to throw, that is when the 49ers defense is at its best.
Per Pro Football Reference, when the 49ers lead, they allow a quarterback rating of 73.7 and have a sack rate of 7.7%. Their front seven is the best part of the defense. When they can ignore the run and just focus on the pass, it spells big trouble.
The +1290 Parlay (odds via FanDuel)
- San Francisco 49ers -9.5 (-110)
- Over 40.5 (-142)
- Eli Mitchell 60+ Yards (+280)
- Geno Smith Under 227.5 (-114)
Pick: Kall's Same-Game Parlay: +1290 |
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