After a festive doubleheader of blowouts, we're on Seahawks vs. Bears. Let's get straight into my player props.
Seahawks vs. Bears Player Props
The Bears have undergone a ton of coaching change this season with offensive coordinator Shane Waldron fired after Week 10 then Matt Eberflus after Week 13. Thomas Brown was promoted to replace Waldron, and then he was promoted to replace Eberflus. Chris Beatty is the new offensive coordinator.
I did a deep dive on the two offensive coordinators' play-calling tendencies for each of their three-game stints. Brown was very pass-heavy on second-and-short situations and pass-heavy after a run for a first down. Beatty has been very run-heavy on second-and-short and following a rush for a first down.
That sort of play-calling is beneficial for D’Andre Swift, who tends to dominate early down work, while Roshcon Johnson tends to handle third downs and the 2-minute offense. Beatty has been a bit more pass-heavy on third downs, which would obviously impact Johnson and not Swift.
Therefore, the snaps Swift is on the field have been seeing more run plays called.
Unfortunately, the Bears have faced a brutal schedule since Week 11 against the Vikings twice, Lions twice, Packers and 49ers. Over that stretch, the Bears have trailed on 84.5% of their plays, which is a huge reason that Swift has only cleared this number just once over the last six games.
While the Bears are four-point underdogs against the Seahawks and could trail for most of/the entire game, this still should be one of the closest games they’ve played in months. They might even get out to a lead!
Based on the average four-point underdog in the NFL, Chicago is projected to trail 47% of its snaps tonight, which is nearly 40% less than their last six games. This sets up to a much better game script for Swift to rack up carries and with how Beatty has been calling plays, making this is a sneaky spot to buy low on Swift.
The Bears have some serious concerns on the offensive line. Starting LT Braxton Jones was placed on IR, and Teven Jenkins ruled out. Matt Pryor should be fine filling in for Jenkins, but Jones is a big loss. The fact Caleb Williams could be seeing more pressure from his blindside tonight makes me think the Bears may want to lean on the run even more here.
Swift’s efficiency could take a hit, which is why I rather bet on his volume, rather than his yardage here. I’m projecting him closer to 15.5 rush attempts with around a 60% chance to clear 14.5.
Kyler Gordon has cleared this number 54% of the time this season despite having a pretty tough schedule to date. The Seahawks have provided the most tackle opportunities for cornerbacks this season, though, making this his best matchup to date.
Gordon has been pretty sensitive to opponent, as well, and he averaged 6.5 tackles per game in his two best matchups to date against the Texans and Rams.
Gordon typically lines up in the slot, which means he should see a ton of Jaxon Smith-Njigba tonight in coverage while also mixing in on some run tackles. His tackle rate tends to be lower when the Bears are trailing, which means he should be helped by the fact the Bears are projected to trail ~40% less than their last six games tonight despite being four-point 'dogs. That will help him see more playing time and more opportunities to register tackles as a result.
This is an excellent spot for Gordon to rack up five or more tackles, and I’m projecting him closer to 5.5 with around a 60% chance he clears 4.5.
