Christmas is over and Thursday Night Football is gifting us a late present with Seahawks vs. Bears.
Let’s get stuck into my four TNF picks, which include NFL props for DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Keenan Allen and Noah Fant.
Seahawks vs Bears TNF Props
- DK Metcalf Under 4.5 Receptions (-105; DraftKings)
- Noah Fant Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (-110; bet365)
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba Anytime Touchdown (+170; DraftKings)
- Keenan Allen Anytime Touchdown (+210; DraftKings)
DK Metcalf Under 4.5 Receptions (-105)
Last week saw DK Metcalf find the end zone against the Vikings for the first time since Week 7 — but don’t let that fool you for there’s been a changing of the guard in Seattle.
Metcalf is no longer the main man in Seattle's receiver room; he’s still the prototypical X receiver, but the emergence of Jaxon Smith-Njigba has damaged him from a statistical standpoint.
Metcalf’s receptions line stands at 4.5, which feels wild given that he’s gone under that mark in each of his past five games. In fact, we’ve seen Metcalf only get five or more catches in three of 13 games this season.
Noah Fant Over 30.5 Receiving yards (-110)
One player who could be primed for a big Thursday is Noah Fant.
The tight end isn’t a vital part of the Seahawks offense, but he’s consistent with three receptions in each of the past five games. The Bears’ weakness against tight ends could allow him to do big things.
Fant's averaged 10.1 yards per catch, which bodes well ahead of TNF. Only five teams have allowed more yardage than the 909 that the Bears have gifted to opposing tight ends.
What’s fascinating is that they’ve only allowed 73 receptions to the position, which sees them ranked 19th and means that they’ve allowed a huge 12.45 yards per reception to tight ends.
In the past two weeks, we’ve seen Sam LaPorta get 43 yards and TJ Hockenson get 52, meaning we could see big numbers for Fant.
It’s worth noting that Fant is currently listed as questionable, so perhaps wager on this one closer to game time when we have more information, but if he’s active, then we should be good.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Anytime Touchdown @ +170
It’s been an incredible second half of the season for Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who is finally showing us why the Seahawks drafted him 23rd overall last year.
The question wasn’t whether we’d wager on JSN but rather, which market is the best? Taking the over on his receiving yards (70.5) feels safe, but I prefer his anytime touchdown odds at +170.
JSN has only scored six times this season, but he has five touchdowns in his last seven games. That’s in line with his second-half breakout.
He’s been so impressive at finding space with his route running, thriving in the gaps created by Metcalf’s deep routes. JSN has scored two times in the past three weeks and has had double-digit targets in his past two games.
Where there’s volume, there’s opportunity and if he keeps getting heavy volume then +170 could be a steal.
Keenan Allen Anytime Touchdown (+210)
Our final player prop for TNF features our first Bear and another anytime touchdown selection.
Keenan Allen's odds of +210 are staggeringly large and, in my opinion, he should be in the +120 to +150 range, making this a huge value play.
Allen’s first season in Chicago hasn’t gone exactly to plan, but he’s come up huge down the stretch and it’s clear that he’s developing real chemistry with rookie QB Caleb Williams.
The past five weeks have been the best of Allen’s time in the Windy City as he’s found the end zone on five occasions. What’s also key is that he's had double-digit targets in three of those five games.
While DJ Moore might lead the Bears in red-zone targets, it’s Allen who’s been more productive. Allen's been playing at such a high level that I have to back the streak to continue, especially at these odds.
